Bitcoin News

Glassnode Data Shows Bitcoin May Drop To $105.5K This Week, Here’s Why

Bitcoin on-chain data signals a drop to $105.5K if it fails to hold key level after the latest $4.5 billion in BTC and ETH options expiry.
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Glassnode Data Shows Bitcoin May Drop To $105.5K This Week, Here’s Why

Highlights

  • Bitcoin risks falling to $105.5K leading to September 26 options expiry.
  • $4.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options to expire today.
  • The BTC max pain price is at $114,000 for today's expiry on Deribit.

Traders predominantly brace for Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry today, anticipating a drop in prices after the recent rebound across the crypto market. Leading on-chain platform Glassnode predicts Bitcoin risks dropping back towards $105.5k if bulls fail to hold a key level.

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$4.5 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options to Expire Today

The latest Bitcoin options expiry will set the stage for the largest options expiry, which could shake the broader crypto market immensely.

30K BTC options with a notional value of $3.52 billion set to expire on the largest derivatives exchange Deribit, September 19. The put-call ratio is 1.23, indicating bearish sentiment as traders continue to place put bets in response to the quarterly expiry next week after the latest crypto market rally.

In the last 24 hours, the put-call ratio is at 0.77 as call volume surpasses 22,300 in comparison to a put volume of 17,250. This signals a cautious sentiment among options traders awaiting cues leading up to the next major expiry.

The max pain price is $114,000, way below the current market price. Options traders may look to bring BTC down towards the max pain point, with puts clustered around $100,000-108,000 strike price.

BTC Options Open Interest. Source: Deribit

Meanwhile, over 177K ETH options of notional value $0.80 billion to expire on Deribit, with a put-call ratio of 1. It indicates bearish sentiment among traders and a likely drop in ETH price.

In the last 24 hours, the call volume was 66,142, slightly higher than put volume of 62,281 at publishing time. The put-call ratio is at 0.77.

Moreover, the max pain price is at $4,500, still below the current ETH price of $4,539. Notably, the $4,500 strike price has higher total call options bets of $22 million than $17 million in put options. This suggests a potential downward bias, as call buyers will likely aim to drive the price towards the level to minimize losses.

BTC Options Open Interest. Source: Deribit
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Glassnode Predicts BTC Risks Falling to $105.5K

The crypto market rebounded after the US SEC approved generic listing standards for crypto ETFs, with BTC price nearly hitting $118K amid high expectations of a post-Fed rate cut rally towards $120K.

According to Glassnode data, 95% of holders are in profit, increasing profit booking risk. Futures show short squeezes and options open interest hit a record 500k BTC ahead of the major September 26 expiry. Bulls need to hold above the $115.2K level to continue moving upside. A consequent drop could trigger a Bitcoin crash to $105.5k.

The max pain point sits near $110K, the level where most options would expire. Notably, this is a Triple Witching,” as it combines weekly, monthly, and quarterly maturities, concentrating flows and liquidity.

BTC Supply Quantities Cost Basis Model. Source: Glassnode
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Varinder Singh

Varinder is a seasoned leader in the fintech and crypto media with over 12 years of experience, including over 6 years dedicated to blockchain, crypto, and Web3 developments. He is known for covering high-impact and quality news stories for publishers such as CoinGape, The Coin Republic, and The Crypto Times, while perfecting and training multiple journalists during his tenure. Being a Master of Technology degree holder, analytics thinker, and tech enthusiast, he has shared his knowledge of disruptive technologies in over 6000 news articles and papers.

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