Grayscale GBTC Discount Lowest In 2 Years, Bitcoin ETF Approval Imminent?

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) discount is currently at its lowest since November 2021, in what could be a sign of investor confidence in the approval of the first ever spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. The GBTC discount is the percentage of the amount that the GBTC is trading above or below its net asset value, in this case Bitcoin BTC price.

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Grayscale GBTC Conversion

While analysts predict a 90% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by January 2024, Grayscale’s filing for conversion of GBTC into a spot ETF also has a legal binding thanks to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit verdict. Among the 12 companies vying for the spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, experts foresee the likelihood of a flurry of approvals from the US SEC all at the same time, to avoid giving out a single company the first mover advantage.

In terms of direct ETF filings, the Ark 21Shares spot Bitcoin ETF filing is scheduled first for decision making by the US SEC, which has a deadline of January 10. However, any action in the Grayscale lawsuit could mean the GBTC conversion to spot ETF along with approval of a bunch of ETF filings. In an August 29, 2023 judgment, a US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit cleared the way for approval of the Grayscale spot ETF.

GBTC Discount: What It Means

The GBTC discount is currently at -12.26%, which is the lowest since November 2021, compared to the -48% in December 2022 following the catastrophic FTX collapse that led to low investor sentiment in the crypto market. Hence, the low discount shows optimism among market participants amid increasing expectation of a Bitcoin ETF approval. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price is around 120% higher compared to an year ago.

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