Is Michael Saylor’s Strategy Bitcoin Portfolio in the Red as BTC Crashes?

The recent crypto market crashes have driven Bitcoin (BTC) price to levels below $92,000. Hence, the Bitcoin treasury model by the Michael Saylor-led Strategy is being questioned. This price drop has sparked massive speculations as to whether the firm’s BTC holdings is now in unrealized losses.

Bitcoin Crash Calls to Question Strategy’s Profit Cushion

A CryptoQuant chart of the unrealized profit and loss (uPnL) since 2020 to November 2025 indicates that the company’s holdings are in a very profitable position. This trend has held even through multiple market crashes.

However, volatility is starting to test investor confidence again. Despite the fear, Strategy has continued accumulating Bitcoin.

Bitcoin now trades around $91,500 after falling more than 13% in the past week. It is down nearly 15% over the last month and more than 16% in six months. Even year-to-date, Bitcoin has slipped more than 2%. It has erased the momentum that dominated late 2024 and early 2025.

The short-term trend is clearly under pressure. Wider sentiment indicators show fear climbing across the market. This decline has sparked a wave of questions about Strategy’s balance sheet. Critics believe the company may be closer to underwater than investors realize.

Strategy Holds Massive Unrealized Bitcoin Profits

The CryptoQuant uPnL chart for Strategy depicts a contrasting perspective. It shows enormous green bars of unrealized profits that have not been erased even after the recent price drop.

The data suggests that Strategy has tens of billions in unrealized gains. The uPnL chart has confirmed that the company’s BTC bet is profitable amid the stressful period in the market.

This aligns with Saylor’s long-standing belief that volatility is noise and Bitcoin is an exponential treasury asset. Saylor recently dismissed the idea of Strategy selling its BTC holdings, even during extreme market stress. According to him, capital will keep flowing from gold to Bitcoin.

However, there were unrealized losses (the red zone) that occurred briefly in some periods of 2021 and 2022. The average purchase price of the company is much lower than the coin’s current price. This offers a substantial cushion against volatility.

Meanwhile, Strategy’s stock has continued to struggle to maintain its price. Some analysts have shared that it’s just a matter of time before the firm begins to sell Bitcoin to keep it afloat.

Mt. Gox and Kalshi Odds Fuel Bitcoin Fears

Meanwhile, the current sell-off is a cause for concern and it’s not just about price volatility. Earlier, the defunct crypto exchange Mt Gox moved BTC worth over $950 million to a new wallet and Kraken. This led to rumors of a fresh round of sell-offs.

Prediction markets are pricing in even deeper downside. On Kalshi, the odds of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 this year have jumped to 38%. The market has nearly doubled the probability of a sub-$80K move in just a matter of days. This suggests that traders are betting that the selloff is not finished.