JP Morgan Shifts To No US Recession Expected, Crypto’s Outlook Turns Bullish

In a remarkable shift, JP Morgan Chase & Co. economists have retracted their earlier recession prediction for the U.S., aligning with a growing number of forecasters who now envision a recession-free trajectory for the nation’s economy, Bloomberg reported. The bank’s chief economist announced on Friday that JP Morgan is no longer forecasting a recession in the current year, substantiated by an upgraded economic growth estimate driven by robust expansion.

JP Morgan Shifts Opinion To No Recession

The bank swiftly raised its real annualized GDP growth projection for the ongoing quarter from a mere 0.5% to an impressive 2.5%, a substantial leap reflecting the economy’s vigorous pace of growth. Michael Feroli, the chief economist, underscored this shift in a research note released on the same day.

The momentous announcement triggered a market reaction, with the S&P 500 plummeting by 50 points and wiping out a staggering $400 billion in market capitalization within minutes of the news.

This abrupt pivot now positions the bank with an outlook of “modest, sub-par growth” for 2024, as noted by Chief US economist Michale Feroli. This transformation in perspective is attributed to promising gains in productivity, heralding the promise of “healthy non-inflationary growth.”

In a related event, Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, highlighted the significance of a recent slowing in inflation. Discussions about the central bank’s stance on interest rates were triggered by this changing economic environment. Bostic’s emphasized caution on the potential effects of excessive rate increases, highlighting worries about unintentionally halting economic growth.

This shift in economic sentiment was further underscored by the US employment report for July, which fell short of expectations with the addition of 187,000 jobs, trailing behind the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 200,000. The unemployment rate, however, remained relatively steady at 3.5%. A silver lining emerged in the form of increased Average Hourly Earnings, providing a glimmer of hope for the labor market.

While positive indicators surface, it’s noteworthy that previous reports are adjusted, revealing a weaker labor market momentum than initially reported. May and June’s nonfarm payroll employment numbers were revised downward by 25,000 and 24,000, respectively.

Amid these developments, both Bank of America and the Federal Reserve have realigned their economic outlooks, signaling a potential shift in the overall sentiment. However, Feroli noted that risks of negative outcomes persist despite the changing tone.

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Is No Recession A Good Sign For Crypto Market?

The cryptocurrency market remains a focus as the financial markets react to JP Morgan’s updated projection. It is with the possibility that sentiment and prices may improve as risk appetite returns. While there are bigger economic developments at work, the adaptability and distinctive qualities of particular cryptocurrencies may be what makes them successful in a changing environment.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) managed to hold above key levels, despite BTC experiencing a slight 0.34% loss. Meanwhile, altcoins like Litecoin (LTC) and Ripple (XRP) faced minor declines. Surprisingly, Shiba Inu (SHIB) emerged as a standout performer, enjoying a remarkable 9.72% surge within 24 hours.

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