Bitcoin (BTC) In Overbought Territory, Slowing ETF Inflows A Concern: JPMorgan

In its latest research report, JPMorgan strategists cautioned that the pullback may continue further. Bitcoin has retraced over 10% from its peak already, with interest in emerging spot Bitcoin ETFs cooling off.

Bitcoin In “Overbought” Territory

All 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs combined recently experienced their most substantial three-day outflow since their launch on January 11. Concurrently, the leading cryptocurrency is on track for one of its most challenging weeks this year, following a 4% decline. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $65,971 with a market cap of $1.297 trillion.

According to JPMorgan strategists, Bitcoin appears to be in the ‘overbought’ territory, reiterating a prediction from February of further downward movements leading up to April’s highly anticipated halving event.

In a note on Thursday, JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted that sustained open interest in CME Bitcoin futures coupled with decreasing ETF flows signify significant bearish indicators for Bitcoin’s price. The strategists wrote:

“The pace of net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs has slowed markedly, with the past week seeing a significant outflow. This challenges the notion that the spot Bitcoin ETF flow picture is going to be characterized as a sustained one-way net inflow. As we approach the halving event this profit taking is more likely to continue, particularly against a positioning backdrop that still looks overbought despite the past week’s correction.”

Last month, JPMorgan forecasted that Bitcoin’s price would gradually decline toward $42,000 post-April, as the “Bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria” diminishes.

Retail Participation Dropping

Despite the BTC price reaching an almost record-high of $73,798 on March 14, there are indications that enthusiasm among retail traders might be fading, as noted by Naeem Aslam, the Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.

Aslam stated, “The rally’s lack of significant momentum following the all-time high has led many to question its strength. With the halving event approaching, if it fails to sustain momentum, we could witness a substantial retracement, potentially causing the price to drop below $50,000.”

Some market analysts believe that Bitcoin will enter a period of consolidation hereon. According to crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, Bitcoin is currently undergoing a period of consolidation. Before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, BTC began correcting.

Following the FOMC meeting, the upward bounce indicates a continuation of the consolidation phase. Van de Poppe believes that the local bottom has been reached, anticipating sideways movement in the near term.

#Bitcoin in a period of consolidation.

Pre-FOMC, it started to correct.

After FOMC, the upward bounce is now a continuation of the consolidation.

I think we've found our local bottom and will have sideways action.

Slowly but surely, altcoins to wake up. pic.twitter.com/8pvQPlQecR

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 21, 2024