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The Bank of England on Thursday hiked its key interest rate for the 14th time in a row, by a quarter-point to 5.25% as UK inflation stays high. BoE hiked the rate to a 15-year peak and gave a new warning that borrowing costs were likely to stay high for some time.
Bank Of England Hikes Interest Rates To 15-Year High
Unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank – which also both raised rates by a quarter-point last week – the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gave little suggestion that rate hikes were about to end as it battles high inflation.
“The MPC will ensure that Bank Rate is sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target,” the BoE said in new guidance about the outlook for rates. “Some of the risks of more persistent inflationary pressures may have begun to crystallize,” it added.
British inflation hit a 41-year high of 11.1% last year and has fallen more slowly than elsewhere, dropping to 7.9% in June, the highest of any major economy. Economists polled by Reuters last week forecast BoE rates would peak at 5.75% later this year. The BoE’s forecasts were based on recent market assumptions – which have now eased somewhat – that rates would peak at over 6% and average nearly 5.5% the over the next three years.
Policymakers voted 6-3 for the increase but were split three ways on the decision for the first time this year. Two MPC members – Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel – voted for a half-point increase this month, while Swati Dhingra voted for no change, as she has all this year, warning of overtightening.
The BoE forecast inflation would fall to 4.9% by the end of this year – a faster decline than it had predicted in May. This will relieve Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who pledged in January to halve inflation this year, a goal that had looked challenging.
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UK Pound Falls Sharply
The British pound took the downside as soon as the news was out. Within one hour of the announcement, the pound fell from 1.266 to 1.264. Wednesday saw an early attempt by the British pound to rise during the day, but it turned around and is now drifting sharply down.
Lower expectations for the peak in UK interest rates and consideration of a possible pause to the hiking cycle before 2023 ends appear to have been investors’ early reactions to the Bank’s latest decision and advice, as evidenced by the losses in gilts and the Pound.
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