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Highlights
- US consumer spending rose by 0.4% in November, indicating continued economic resilience.
- The PCE price index, a key inflation measure, saw a modest increase of 0.1% month-over-month, suggesting inflation remains under control.
- This stable economic environment could lead to less volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
US economic data for November 2024 showed steady growth in key metrics, with the PCE inflation index increased by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE index rose by 0.1% monthly and 2.8% annually.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal income rose 0.5%, DPI increased 0.3%, and PCE climbed 0.4%. Real disposable income and spending also had moderate gains, while the inflation indicators-the PCE price index, for instance-remained subdued at 0.1% month-over-month.
US Core PCE Inflation Cools: Less Volatility for Crypto?
Personal consumption expenditures in the United States rose 0.4% or $81.3 billion in November, the nation‘s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Friday.
The PCE inflation rose 0.1% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. The figure increased 0.1% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual one when excluding food and energy. Personal income increased 0.5 percent or $71.1 billion in the month compared to the prior month. Meanwhile, DPI increased 0.3 percent or $61.1 billion.
The Core PCE was a key gauge of inflation, and below expectations, adding to expectations of continued dovish monetary policy. It saw a bullish reaction in the cryptocurrency market following this development as Bitcoin saw a sharp rally.
Ahead of the indicator, Bitcoin price had slipped to the $93,000 level. However, right after the announcement, it jumped at incredible speed to $95,000, reflecting renewed investor confidence.
The 0.4% rise in PCE inflation highlights resilient consumer spending in categories like autos, goods, and recreation. The modest increase in the PCE price index suggests low inflation, supporting the Federal Reserve’s current policy stance. This stable macroeconomic environment may reduce volatility for cryptocurrencies by minimizing surprises in inflation or income growth.
Subdued Core PCE inflation could further support Bitcoin and altcoins by fostering a favorable macroeconomic outlook. Lower inflation decreases the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, which often weigh on risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s sharp rally reflects renewed investor confidence, showcasing crypto’s appeal as an alternative asset class.
. With stable inflation and income data, cryptocurrencies could experience reduced volatility, attracting more institutional and retail interest in the sector.
Softer Consumer Demand and Potential Easing of Fed Policy?
The Core PCE Price Index is one of the key economic indicators that reflect consumer spending trends, excluding volatile food and energy sectors. Such an approach allows pinpointing the underlying inflation trajectory, which is a key factor for monetary policy decisions.
November’s softer-than-expected Core PCE inflation would signal a slower pace of price increases, probably on the back of softer consumer demand or heightened competition in the market. It is expected to ease the concern about inflation and convince the Fed to be less aggressive with monetary tightening.
Recently, the Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, has enacted its third interest rate cut of the year, signaling a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the US economy. Powell emphasized that the risks to achieving employment and inflation targets are now balanced, reflecting confidence in economic stability.
The decrease in the Core PCE would normally contribute to the weakness of the US dollar due to a perception of accommodative monetary policy. However, its effects on USD depend on more general economic indicators and overall conditions of the world’s financial markets-a reflection of the interdependency of economic factors toward market behavior.
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