Markets Expect October Fed Rate Cut as Bitcoin Repeats Post-FOMC Pattern

Bitcoin traders are preparing for a rise or fall in the price of Bitcoin, as the time for the Federal Reserve policy meeting for October approaches. The decision would lower the federal funds rate to a target range between 3.75% and 4.00%, continuing the central bank’s gradual easing cycle that began earlier this year.

Traders Eye Powell’s Comments as Markets Fully Price In Fed Cut

Market data from CME Group and Kalshi show overwhelming expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut, with probabilities reaching 97.8% to 98%. CME data shows open interest remains high around Fed futures contracts.

Previously, the rising odds of an October rate cut helped fuel Bitcoin’s price surge. Meanwhile, the Kalshi market have traded more than $34 million in trading volume associated with this outcome for this month. The overwhelming consensus for a 25-basis-point cut underscores the market’s belief that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that today marks another pivotal FOMC day. He said the 25-basis-point cut itself is widely priced in and unlikely to move markets beyond short-term volatility. Traders can follow the FOMC meeting and watch out for key expectations that could affect the crypto market.

Also, analyst Daan emphasized that the focus will shift to Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks. Traders will look for clarity on when the Fed might end quantitative tightening (QT) and possibly begin a new round of quantitative easing (QE) in 2026.

According to Daan, another Fed rate cut is already priced in for the December 2025 meeting with over 95% probability. He expects Powell’s tone on liquidity policy and balance sheet management to drive the next market reaction.

Bitcoin’s Post-FOMC Pattern Hints at November Price Recovery

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price pattern around past FOMC meetings has drawn renewed attention. Analyst Ted Pillows observed that BTC has dropped between 6% and 8% following the last three Fed announcements.

After those declines, Bitcoin proceeded to make new all-time highs till the next meeting. The same setup is now re-forming with BTC price close to the $113,000 mark before the October rate decision. Analysis showed that Bitcoin price could eye the $120,000 zone as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut strengthens.

All the Fed rate cuts have exerted sell pressure on Bitcoin in the short term before it regained its upward trend. If this setup repeats itself, then a plunge followed by a period of recovery into November should be expected.