98% of MATIC Holders in Loss: Can the POL Rebrand Spark a MATIC Price Rally?

Matic price is becoming a buzzword among the crypto community as the network’s deadline for rebranding the MATIC token to POL nears. Scheduled for September 4, the rebranding is part of Polygon 2.0’s roadmap to enhance the blockchain’s security and utility. However, 97.74% of MATIC holders are currently in losses. Will the rebrand provide the hype needed to bolster the struggling token?

Worrying On-Chain Metrics Ahead of Rebrand

The market has been unfavorable for MATIC investors lately. Polygon’s daily active addresses and network growth have generally declined since mid-April 2024, with only occasional spikes. Notably, between August 11 and 12, active addresses dropped sharply from over 500,000 to just 88,200. Additionally, transaction counts fell from over 130,000 to 16,900, signaling a significant reduction in user engagement and network activity.

Compounding these challenges, most MATIC investors are deep in the red. According to data from IntoTheBlock, 97.74% of MATIC holders, with over $32 million in tokens, are currently “out of the money,” while only 1.49% are seeing any profitability.

Moreover, whale transactions have spiked only after price rallies, indicating a pattern of profit-taking rather than accumulation. This behavior has added downward pressure on the MATIC price.

MATIC has also emerged as one of the worst-performing large-cap cryptocurrencies year-to-date, with a 56% drop as of August 11. This decline is in line with other underperforming assets like Lido Finance (-60%), Optimism (-62%), Arbitrum (-63%), and DYDX (-65%).

However, technical analysis suggests there may still be some hope for the layer 2 network.

Can Bulls Turn the Tide on Matic Price?

The Matic price is slightly bullish in the short term, as indicated by the higher lows and the price forming an ascending triangle pattern. However, the overall trend remains bearish, with the price below the 200-day EMA (black line at  0.5047 ) and the 50-day EMA (green line at  0.4348 ).

An ascending triangle pattern is forming near the current price levels, indicating potential bullish momentum if the price can break above the triangle’s upper resistance.

MATIC price sports some minor resistance around $0.4348. If a breakout happens above this level, it could lead to a test of the next major resistance at $0.5047. On the other hand, there is a zone of support around $0.4150. If this level fails, the next support lies at $0.4000 (orange zone).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49.14, which is neutral and suggests that the asset is neither overbought nor oversold. This gives room for movement in either direction. 

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which shows the level of buy or sell pressure on an asset, is positive at 0.13, indicating some buying pressure, which aligns with the potential bullish breakout of the ascending triangle.

Overall, the technical indicators are neutral to bullish in the short term for Matic price.

If the MATIC price breaks out above $0.4348, it could lead to a trend reversal that may catapult the asset to $0.5331. However, the major resistance at $0.5047 must be breached for a more sustained upward movement. A potential long-term target could be around $0.6000 if the 200-day EMA is broken and sustained.