ADA Price Faces Crossroads: Will the 7-Month High NVT Ratio Lead to a Crash?

ADA price is at a crossroads. With the Chang hard fork up ahead and a thin slice of support holding the price up, it is difficult to predict what will happen next. While on-chain metrics hint the market sentiment may be more bullish than bearish, analysis of traders’ behaviors shows they are bearish on the asset. Will ADA price survive the mixed sentiment in the market?

Onchain Metrics Reveal ADA Price Potential Rally

Data from Santiment shows that the Cardano Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio hit a 7-month high, but the price has dropped for the last five days. When the NVT ratio spikes while the price decreases, it generally indicates a bearish signal for the crypto asset.

However, IntoTheBlock data shows large holder netflow increased from August 25 to 28 as the price dropped, which indicates that large investors or “whales” may be accumulating the asset despite the falling price. 

The buying activity from large holders can signal their confidence in the asset’s long-term potential, even if the short-term price action is negative. Coupled with the spike in the NVT ratio, this positive investor sentiment may signal they are pricing Cardano at a premium, possibly due to speculative interest or future growth expectations.

This accumulation may have provided a level of price support, as the increased demand from large holders eventually stabilizes or even pushes the price up, as seen on the Cardano technical analysis.

ADA Technical Analysis: Temporary Support or Launch Pad?

The Cardano price tried to stay above the 50-day exponential moving average, but the selling pressure was too high. The price dropped below the 50 EMA (indicated by the green line), suggesting that a bearish momentum is dominant.

ADA price found support around $0.3550, where most of the whales seem to be building a buy wall. The candlestick analysis at this level shows small-bodied candles with wicks on both sides, indicating indecision in the market.

However, data from the Coinglass 7-day Liquidation Map shows a huge sell wall between $0.372 and $0.4. This means it will take a great effort to push the price beyond this price to the upside.

Conversely, there is a thin slice of sell buy order between $0.348 and $0.312, which, if eliminated, may result in an ADA price free fall to sub $0.3 price.

Will Cardano Price Crash 10%?

ADA price remains overall bearish unless the price breaks above the previous high at $0.4. Positive investor sentiment can sustain the price up, but eventually, the profit-driven Futures traders have more power as they don’t have an actual stake in the asset – only leverage. The successful launch of Chang hard fork will go a long way in helping Cardano price decide the next course of direction.