Bitcoin ETF Gets $365M Boost, Can BTC Withstand China’s Housing Crisis?

On Friday, the Bitcoin price hit $65,000 for the first time since August, accounting for +25% growth in three weeks. The bullish trajectory is backed by renewed inflow in Bitcoin ETF and macroeconomic change in the global market. However, the bullish trajectory is at risk as China’s mounting housing crisis could impact the crypto market.

Bitcoin ETF Gets $365M Inflows, but Will China’s Housing Woes Impact BTC?

Since yesterday, the Bitcoin price has witnessed a renewed bullish momentum, surging from $63,121 to $66,280— a 5% increase. This recovery followed a substantial inflow of $365.57M into the U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETF on Thursday, the highest daily amount in over two months.

Some analysts attribute the recent crypto market uptick to Beijing’s announcement of extensive stimulus measures to revive China’s weakening economy. As part of these initiatives, China plans to adjust existing mortgage rates to align with current market rates, reducing approximately 50 basis points. Additionally, the government is lowering the minimum downpayment requirement for second homes from 25% to 15%.

This move aims to stimulate the housing sector, a major contributor to China’s economy.

However, the Director of Research at BCA Research, Peter Berezin, shares the stimulus announced this week is “not a frontal assault to boost growth. It was a rearguard action to prevent economic collapse.”

Berezin highlights that China’s housing starts are down 70% from their peak, indicating the construction sector’s distress. The completion of the housing project is down only 11% because the government is stepping in to finance developers to complete already stalled projects. 

Completions are down only 11% because the government has been arranging financing for property developers to enable them to finish previously stalled projects. His tweet stated, 

Once that pipeline of old projects is cleared out, housing construction will plunge.

Despite Bitcoin ETF inflow, the China housing crisis could trigger initial volatility and a pullback in BTC prices as risk-averse traders tend to cash out from risky assets like cryptocurrency.

The Chinese government had no choice but to act this week. Housing starts are down 70% from their peak.

Completions are down only 11% because the government has been arranging financing for property developers to enable them to finish previously stalled projects.

Once that… pic.twitter.com/eBk48vwu4Y

— Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) September 27, 2024

However, the Bitcoin limited and decentraland nature may eventually sweep investors’ interest away from traditional, especially in a struggling economy. Moreover, China’s attempt to ease monetary policy (e.g., rate cuts) could further increase the appeal of these higher-risk assets.

BTC Price Hints Major Breakout

By press time, the BTC price had traded at $66,272, boosting a market cap of $1.3 billion. With sustained buying, the asset could surge 3% before challenging the multi-month resistance trendline at $68,350.

A potential breakout could drive the Bitcoin price prediction above the $80,000 mark.

On the contrary, a reversal from the overhead trendline will renew bearish momentum and extend the current consolidation.