Bitcoin Price Analysis: US CPI and Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Could Drive BTC Rebound to $118K

Bitcoin price climbed 7.4% in 24 hours, reclaiming $83,700 after bottoming at $76,000. Softer inflation data and easing geopolitical risks fueled gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) Rebound Halts at $84,500 as Markets Recover on US CPI Data

Bitcoin price rose 7.4% in the last 24 hours, reclaiming ground above $83,700 after forming a local bottom at $76,000. Early market signals from the latest US CPI data suggest BTC’s upside momentum could persist.

BTC price surged to $84,476 on Wednesday, fueled by two key catalysts: softer-than-expected U.S. inflation figures and easing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The latest CPI print bolstered investor confidence, sending risk assets higher, while developments in ceasefire negotiations added another layer of optimism.

Why Is Bitcoin Price Going Up?

Bitcoin’s latest rally stems from three major factors—dovish inflation data, geopolitical relief, and increasing trader optimism within crypto markets.

1. US CPI Data Sparks Renewed Risk Appetite

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported lower-than-expected inflation figures on Wednesday, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay further interest rate hikes. This shift reignited demand for Bitcoin, particularly among macro-sensitive investors who had previously exited risk assets amid concerns over a more aggressive Fed policy.

In February, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 319.08 points from 317.67 in January. The annual inflation rate eased to 2.8%, down from 3% the previous month and below market forecasts of 2.9%. On a monthly basis, CPI increased by just 0.2%, a notable slowdown from January’s 0.5% rise and lower than the expected 0.3%, according to TradingEconomics data.

Market participants had braced for persistently high inflation, but with price pressures cooling faster than anticipated, traders swiftly repositioned their portfolios. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against monetary instability, experienced renewed inflows as investors rotated back into digital assets, capitalizing on shifting macroeconomic sentiment.

• 2. Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks Ease Market Uncertainty

Beyond macroeconomic factors, geopolitical developments also contributed to Bitcoin’s price recovery. On Wednesday, the BBC reported that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio detailed a joint U.S.-Ukrainian proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. The proposal, reportedly under review by Moscow, represents a potential breakthrough in the three-year-long conflict.

The crypto market, particularly traders on blockchain-based predictions platform Polymarket, reacted immediately.

Polymarket data showed a 14% surge in ceasefire odds, reflecting shifting sentiment among investors who view geopolitical stability as a key factor for sustained risk-on behavior. Historically, Bitcoin has shown sensitivity to major geopolitical events, with heightened global uncertainty often triggering volatility.

Should a ceasefire materialize, it could trigger sustained capital inflows into Bitcoin as investors regain confidence in broader financial markets.

3. Crypto Market Optimism Reflected in Derivatives Data

The latest BTC price surge has been mirrored in derivatives markets, signaling growing bullish sentiment among traders. Bitcoin’s open interest climbed 0.4% to breach the $46 billion mark on Wednesday, even as overall trading volumes dipped 22%.

According to Coinglass data, rising open interest despite lower spot market activity suggests traders are positioning for a potential breakout rather than reacting to short-term fluctuations.

Additionally, funding rates across major exchanges remain neutral to slightly positive, indicating that leverage is not yet overheated—an important signal that BTC’s rally may have more room to run.

Polymarket’s increasing ceasefire odds further reinforce the idea that investors are beginning to price in a more favorable macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop.

With inflation softening and geopolitical risks easing, Bitcoin could see continued strength in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Elliott Wave Hints at $76K Support, Falling Wedge Signals $118K Target

Bitcoin price forecast signals currently hang in the balances with vital bullish and bearish indicator counteracting directional movements.

On the downside, the Elliott Wave structure highlights a corrective ABC pattern, with wave (c) potentially extending to deeper Fibonacci levels if selling pressure intensifies.

The MACD remains negative, reinforcing short-term downside risks. However, this wave structure aligns with a common reversal zone, suggesting that a final flush-out could precede a bullish rebound.

A deeper retracement below $76,000 would expose the next Fibonacci extension levels near $65,346 and $46,102, marking extreme bearish scenarios if leverage-driven liquidations accelerate.

Conversely, the falling wedge formation, however, is a historically bullish setup. A breakout from this structure could see BTC price rebound higher, targeting $90,000 in the medium term and ultimately pushing toward the $118,000 target as highlighted in the chart above.

For confirmation of a bullish dominance, Bitcoin price must reclaim resistance near $84,500, the upper wedge boundary. A decisive move above this level, coupled with increasing momentum, could trigger a wave (c) invalidation, strengthening the bullish outlook. Until then, traders should remain cautious, as leverage-driven swings could still dictate near-term price action.