Bitcoin Price at Risk of $75,000 reversal as PPI gains heightens Trade War Fears

Bitcoin price continued its descent on Thursday, struggling to hold $81,000 amid renewed trade tensions between the US and its North American neighbors. Despite lower inflation figures, bearish sentiment persists. After tumbling below $80,000 in three consecutive days, is BTC price at risk of losing the $75,000 support?

Bitcoin (BTC) settles at $81K as bears target more downsizing

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to struggle for traction on Thursday, displaying volatile yet range-bound movements. The latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) data confirmed that industrial inflation is cooling, aligning with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Wednesday.

Despite these indicators reinforcing an easing inflation trend, Bitcoin failed to capitalize on the news, instead extending its decline for the third consecutive day.

Bitcoin opened trading on Thursday at $83,700 but quickly faced selling pressure, declining by 4% to hover just above $81,000 at press time. The $79,000 level was tested earlier in the session, signalling weakening support as market sentiment remained fragile.

With persistent macroeconomic uncertainties and looming trade policy concerns, traders continue to tread cautiously, avoiding aggressive buy-ins even amid positive inflation data.

Why is Bitcoin price going down?

Bitcoin briefly attempted a recovery, nearing $82,000 within hours of the PPI data release, but the gains were short-lived. Investors interpreted the lower inflation figures as a potential signal that the Trump administration could extend existing tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a longer period, rather than easing them.

This stance has raised concerns that prolonged trade tensions could dampen retail traders’ investment capacity and appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Validating these concerns, Polymarket odds on Trump ending the trade war with Canada before May 2025 plunged by 18% following the PPI data release. Historical trends suggest that when odds on trade war resolution decline, risk appetite among investors also weakens, leading to capital outflows from speculative markets. The chart below reflects the sharp downturn in sentiment regarding a potential tariff rollback.

Polymarket betting trends often serve as a market-neutral gauge of investor expectations around key policy decisions.

The notable 18% drop in odds suggests that instead of taking advantage of lower inflation to drive bullish momentum, crypto investors remain wary. The prevailing sentiment indicates fears that policymakers might use the inflation cushion to justify higher tariffs for a prolonged period, contributing to Bitcoin’s latest 4% price drop on Thursday.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: $75K support as Risk if Bearish Sentiment Lingers

Bitcoin price forecast signals continued on a downward trajectory on Thursday, trading at $80,981 after a volatile session that saw a drop below $79,955. The daily chart reflects persistent bearish sentiment, with Bitcoin struggling to reclaim key moving averages.

The 50-day moving average at $87,034 remains a key resistance, while the lower Bollinger Band at $77,361 signals potential downside risk if bearish pressure intensifies.

A break below this level could expose Bitcoin to a test of the psychological $75,000 support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovers at 38.35, reflecting weakening momentum and suggesting Bitcoin is approaching oversold conditions.

However, the RSI has not yet dipped below 30, indicating that further downside remains possible before buyers step in. A decisive break above the RSI midline at 50 could confirm a bullish reversal, but for now, sentiment remains fragile.

Volume Delta indicators confirm ongoing selling pressure, with red bars dominating the lower section of the chart. Consecutive days of negative volume delta suggest that bears remain in control, absorbing any attempts at recovery.

If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $83,700 resistance, the risk of a deeper correction remains, potentially testing $75,000 in the coming sessions.