Bitcoin Price Forecast: How To Navigate BTC’s Pre-Halving Macroeconomic Uncertainties

Highlights

Bitcoin holds steady as traders start gaining confidence in the halving taking place this weekend.
Bitcoin rallied by 1000%, 200%, and 600% after previous halvings.
A break above the 50-day EMA at $64,517 could ignite interest in BTC before and after halving.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: The largest cryptocurrency appears to have bottomed ahead of the halving which is expected to occur on Saturday this week. Over the last couple of weeks, BTC along with the altcoins has witnessed a surge in selling activities, with the rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia due to the Israel-Gaza war making it worse for risk assets to hold onto their values.

Posting a modest negative price change in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin price hovers at $62,115 during US business hours on Thursday, April 18.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: How Far Can BTC Recover Pre-Halving?

Bitcoin price is back on the drawing board, testing support in the range between $61,000 and $62,000 for the third time since early March. Although the last few days since the weekend have been a rollercoaster for the leading crypto, traders seem ready to take up new long positions ahead of the halving.

Based on most blockchain calculators, Bitcoin halving may occur on Saturday, April 20. As covered extensively by CoinGape, halving is a process used to control the supply of Bitcoin ensuring the scarcity of the digital asset and minimal inflation.

This is achieved by reducing miner rewards every four years or after 210,000 blocks have been completed.

The impact of the halving is often seen as monumental on Bitcoin supply which props the coin for a parabolic rally in subsequent months. In a post on X, Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin price has historically rallied by “1,000%, 200%, and 600% post halving.”

Now, the question most investors are asking themselves ahead of Saturday is “Will it happen again?”

In 2 days, the Bitcoin halving will cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC. Historically, prices soared 1000%, 200%, and 600% post-halving. Will it happen again? Explore in our 'Spotlights' series, highlighting key insights from our Q2 Crypto Market Guide. 👇https://t.co/4Il4pkhIX5 pic.twitter.com/yyVbUH7n94

— glassnode (@glassnode) April 17, 2024

Economics of supply and demand say that prices tend to rally when demand surpasses supply. Hence, the possibility of Bitcoin price significantly soaring to new levels as the market deals with the reducing supply, especially with the spot ETFs in the US and Hong Kong driving demand for BTC.

Assessing Bitcoin’s Short-Term Technical Outlook

Should the support in the range between $61,000 and $62,000 hold steady, traders will gain more confidence in the ability of Bitcoin to reverse the trend and sustain it heading into the halving.

However, traders cannot ignore the precarious position Bitcoin is in, especially with the Moving Average Divergence (MACD) indicator maintaining a negative outlook below the neutral area.

With that in mind, breaking through the above support range may put a lot of pressure on the $60,000 possibly triggering an extended decline to $58,000.

On the upside, bulls will comfortably take the reins with BTC price rising above the black ascending trend line and consequently the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (line in red) at $64,517.

On the halving day, FOMO might help to catapult the price higher with bulls eyeing another debut above the $67,500 level. However, breaking above $70,000 might be an uphill task in the short term although it might eventually happen as BTC’s supply decreases in the weeks ahead.

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John Isige

John is a seasoned crypto expert, renowned for his in-depth analysis and accurate price predictions in the digital asset market. As the Price Prediction Editor for Market Content at CoinGape Media, he is dedicated to delivering valuable insights on price trends and market forecasts. With his extensive experience in the crypto sphere, John has honed his skills in understanding on-chain data analytics, Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), Decentralized Finance (DeFi), Centralized Finance (CeFi), and the dynamic metaverse landscape. Through his steadfast reporting, John keeps his audience informed and equipped to navigate the ever-changing crypto market.

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