Bitcoin Price Pattern Points to a Crash to $62k as Fed Cut Odds Fall to 54%

Bitcoin price continued its strong freefall this week as investors in the crypto and stock markets embraced a risk-off sentiment. The coin plunged to a low of $95,000 and is on track to fall for the third consecutive week. This plunge could continue as ETF outflows and as the Federal Reserve cut odd fall on Polymarket.

Bitcoin Price at Risk of Falling to $62,600

The weekly timeframe chart shows that the BTC price has been in a strong downtrend in the past few weeks. This crash happened after the coin jumped to a record high of $126,330 in October. 

Most recently, the coin has dropped in the past three consecutive weeks, forming a three black crows pattern. This pattern consists of three consecutive bearish candles. 

There is a risk that the BTC price may keep crashing, potentially to the next key support at $62,600. This pattern is made up of two uptrending and converging trendlines. In most cases, this pattern leads to a strong bearish breakout, which is already happening. 

The profit target in a rising wedge pattern is estimated by measuring the distance of the widest part. In this case, the widest part is about 41%. Measuring the same distance from the breakout point gives the target price at $62,630, which is about 35% below the current level. 

Bitcoin has formed other bearish patterns on the weekly chart. The most prominent one was the bearish divergence, which happens when top oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD are falling as the price jumps. 

On the flip side, a move above the resistance level at $110,000 will invalidate the bearish BTC price forecast 2025 and point to more upside, potentially to the next key resistance at $126,330, its all-time high. 

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts Odds are Falling

One potential catalyst for the Bitcoin price crash is the falling odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the next meeting in December this year. 

Data on Polymarket shows that the odds of a cut have dropped to 54% from 90% on October 30. These odds have declined as concerns about inflation have remained, with some Fed officials arguing that the headline CPI has remained above the 2% target for over our years.

Bitcoin price has other major risks. For example, the futures open interest has plunged to $60 billion, down from the year-to-date high of close to $100 billion. This is a sign that investors are taking a more cautious view of Bitcoin after the recent $20 billion liquidation event. 

Bitcoin ETF outflows have continued, which is a sign that investors are wary about the industry as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index slumps. On-chain data shows that large holders are dumping their tokens.