Bitcoin Price Prediction as Exchange Reserves Hit 6-Year Low—Is $150K Within Reach?

The Bitcoin price continues to show renewed strength after breaking through a crucial chart structure visible on the daily timeframe. Recent market behavior suggests growing accumulation, with investors transferring coins off exchanges to private wallets. This decline in exchange balances reflects a clear shift toward long-term conviction as the market stabilizes. 

Bitcoin Price Action: Bulls Secure Breakout Toward $150K

The current Bitcoin market price trades at around $123,700, reflecting renewed investor strength after rebounding from a demand zone in late September. This region marked a key structural support level where buyers consistently absorbed selling pressure, confirming the formation of a double-bottom pattern. 

Bitcoin then broke above its falling channel on October 1, signaling a decisive end to its multi-week corrective phase. The breakout was followed by a surge in buying volume, emphasizing growing confidence among market participants.

Notably, the BTC price reached a new all-time high of $125,559 on October 5, validating the bullish shift and reinforcing dominance across higher timeframes. The $120K level now acts as a firm support zone, providing a foundation for continued upward extension if minor retracements occur. 

Meanwhile, the MACD indicator shows a clear bullish crossover, confirming that upward drive aligns with technical strength. Historically, similar setups have preceded explosive rallies during prior bullish cycles.

Therefore, as long as the Bitcoin price maintains structure above $120K and continues consolidating above resistance, the path toward $150K by year-end remains achievable. Overall, the alignment of indicators, patterns, and buyer activity underscores a sustainable continuation phase for the long-term BTC price prediction.

Exchange Reserves Highlight Confidence as ETF Inflows Surge

Bitcoin’s on-exchange reserves have dropped to roughly 2.4 million, marking the lowest level in six years. This persistent decline highlights investors’ growing preference for long-term holding and reduced supply in the active market. 

Historically, such phases of reduced liquidity have amplified upside potential, especially when accompanied by accumulation trends.

Meanwhile, exchange inflows have fallen sharply, dropping from an average of 0.55 to 0.48 as the BTC price climbed from $108K to $124K. This pattern reflects a market sustained by organic accumulation rather than speculative selling. These metrics confirm that selling intent remains low, supporting a healthy uptrend. 

At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.3 billion in inflows last week, marking one of the strongest weeks since inception. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and Nate Geraci described the surge as historic, with institutional inflows exceeding $10 billion in a month. 

As capital continues shifting from speculative sectors toward BTC, these combined factors reinforce a supply-constrained, bullish backdrop for the broader Bitcoin price outlook.

Summary

The Bitcoin price maintains a strong technical foundation supported by falling exchange reserves and historic ETF inflows. Declining supply, consistent institutional participation, and long-term accumulation all point toward a constructive path ahead. If BTC sustains its structure above the $120K support zone, a move toward $150K remains a realistic near-term objective. Therefore, both on-chain and technical perspectives align in signaling continued upside potential for the BTC price in Q4.