Bitcoin Price Prediction As ETF Euphoria Explodes, Is BTC Going To $40k This Weekend?

The Bitcoin price (BTC) narrative has remained buoyant this week, spreading FOMO across the crypto market. Reports of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) likelihood of approving BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are going around the market, driving investors and traders to seek exposure and book positions ahead of what could be the biggest rally in 2023.

Bitcoin price has broken above $37,000 for the first in 2023 and trading at $37,085 at the time of writing. If the momentum backing the climb keeps increasing, BTC might just close the week above $40,000. Altcoins are also on the move led by Ethereum price rally above $1,900. The largest smart contracts token will likely end the week trading above $2,000.

Bitcoin Supply is Historically High

According to the latest on-chain insights by X user @_Checkmatey_ using blockchain metrics from Glassnode, “The Bitcoin supply is historically tight, with an all-time high in coins held by long-term investors, and impressive rates of accumulation taking place.”

On-chain metrics highlighted by analysts at Glassnode reveal that long-term investors are not motivated to spend their coins, leaving the supply dormant. However, BTC purchased in the last year, which mainly comprise short-term holders moved in a cyclical nature. What stands out among all cohorts of Bitcoin holders is that supply across the board is hitting new all-time highs in 2023.

Meanwhile, the number of active addresses transacting Bitcoin is at the highest level since 2022 following following the rally to the all-time high close to $70,000 in 2021.

As more people transact Bitcoin, they create liquidity and momentum for the anticipated rally. Therefore, it is safe to say that Bitcoin price is gradually getting fundamentally ready for the bull run.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Are Traders Ready to Back The Next Breakout?

Based on the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) indicator, traders are willing to bet on long positions in Bitcoin price as opposed to shorting the largest crypto. The OBV shows the direction of the volume in the market, either flowing in or out. A consistent uptrend indicates that the inflow volume significantly outweighs the outflow volume, hence the growing potential for another breakout in the short term.

In addition to trading above all three Bitcoin bull market indicators; the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the 100-day EMA (blue), and the 200-day EMA (purple), a bullish cross on the weekly chart increases the chances of Bitcoin price climbing above $36,000—the immediate resistance and reaching to close the distance to $40,000.

The bullish cross would manifest with the 50-week EMA flipping above the 100-week EMA. It validates the optimistic thesis, encouraging traders to keep their long positions open for gains toward $40,000.

However, if BTC price is rejected from $36,000 for the second time, the correction that follows may need to extend to lower levels at $33,000 and $30,000 where bulls will seek liquidity for a large larger breakout.

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