Bitcoin Price Set to Break $100K As US Dollar Weakens Ahead of US NFP

After a relatively slow weekend, Bitcoin (BTC) price today is knocking on the $100,000 psychological level after 11 days. BTC will likely blast through this key level as the US dollar drops, anticipating a steep correction. This outlook could blow the short-sellers and bears out of the water.

Bitcoin Knocks on $100K Level As US Dollar Drops 1.52% 

Since the December 2 peak of 109.533, the US dollar Index (DXY) has dropped 1.52% and currently trades around 107.943. This drop has pushed it into a short-term demand zone, extending from 107.911 to 108.267. A breakdown of this level with momentum could signal that a further drop is likely. Typically, the DXY and BTC are inversely correlated, i.e., if DXY shoots up, Bitcoin will drop and vice versa. As a result, DXY tends to rally if the US Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, creating a risk-off scenario. In this scenario, investors sell their risky assets and prefer holding DXY.

If the US dollar index collapses the aforementioned support zone, it could drop from 0.73% to 1.03%. Such a descent in the US dollar index could trigger a rally for BTC price, swiftly breaching the $100K hurdle.

Nonfarm Payrolls on January 10 Could Reset BTC’s Directional Bias

Fed’s decision in December to have fewer rate cuts in 2025 triggered a crash for the US equities and crypto markets. The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on January 10 will set the tone for what the Fed might do next. 

Here are three scenarios to watch ahead of the NFP release.

Strong NFP Report

• A higher-than-anticipated NFP report could lead to a decline in Bitcoin and US equities as investors become more risk-averse due to the potential for higher interest rates.
• From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin price in 2025 could drop to the $90,000-$95,000 range, while US equities could experience a moderate decline.

Weak NFP Report

• A weak jobs data or NFP report could lead to a rally in Bitcoin and US equities as investors become more optimistic about the potential for interest rate cuts.
• BTC could surge to the $110,000-$115,000 range, while US equities could experience a significant rally.

Mixed NFP Report

• A mixed NFP report could lead to a range-bound market for Bitcoin and US equities, with minimal impact on prices.
• BTC price could trade within the $95,000-$110,000 range, while US equities could experience a relatively calm trading session.

Other key macroeconomic events that investors need to keep an eye on include the US Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings and revisions to previous NFP releases.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: What’s Next After BTC Price Overcomes $100K?

From a technical standpoint, in 2025 Bitcoin price consolidates between $100K and $93.3K levels. 70% of all the trading volume was traded in this range between November 21 and January 6. 

There are three scenarios in which the current Bitcoin price action could unfold in January 2025. 

1. A bullish catalyst coupled with a spike in buying pressure, volume or consolidation under $100K could indicate an impending breakout. In this bullish case, BTC price could shoot 3% to 6% and tag $102.7K to $105.3K resistance levels.
2. A lack of buying pressure and bearish macroeconomic events could lead to rejection at $100K. Such a development could lead to a rangebound movement between $100K and $93.3K.
3. The third scenario includes a rejection of the $100K level followed by a dip into the CME gap, extending from $94.4K to $94.9K. This would serve as a buying opportunity that leads to a retest and breakout of $100K. 

Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch in January 2025

For a bullish case to unfold, Bitcoin needs to break $100K, following which the $102.7K to $105.3K resistance levels come into play. Beyond this, the ATH of $108,421.8 will be the next target for BTC bulls.

For dip buying opportunities, the CME gap that stretches from $94.4K to $94.9K will be great.

A bearish scenario will unfold if Bitcoin breaks the December 30 swing low at $91.4K, creating a lower low. This development indicates a bearish market structure and could catalyze a correction. In such a case, Bitcoin price forecast points to key support levels at $90K and $81.1K.

Conclusion

As the Bitcoin price knocks on the $100,000 psychological level, investors must pay attention to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on January 10. This macroeconomic event will allow them to gauge the US Federal Reserve’s decisions for 2025.

A weak NFP report could lead to a rally in Bitcoin price, potentially breaking through the $100,000 barrier and reaching $110,000 to $115,000. On the other hand, a strong NFP report could lead to a decline in Bitcoin price, potentially dropping to $90,000-$95,000.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin price is consolidating between $100K and $93.3K. If there aren’t any bearish events or spikes in selling pressure, BTC is set to breach $100K and push higher toward the $102.7K to $105.3K levels.

For an informed decision on Bitcoin or the US equities, investors must keep a close eye on other key macroeconomic events like the US Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and revisions to previous NFP releases.