Highlights
After rejection at $86K, Bitcoin price is down 3.35% from a high of $86,496. This sudden collapse in Bitcoin (BTC) is due to the short sellers and profit-taking at a key pivot point. While the ride up to $86K was bullish, many crypto traders expect the BTC price to crash down to $80K and some even $65K.
As noted above, Bitcoin price shed 3.35% from Tuesday’s high of $86,496. Today, this drop has decelerated in the Asian and Europe trading sessions, leaving BTC with a 0.64% drop today as it trades at $83,369.
Before exploring if Bitcoin price will crash to $80K or $65K, let’s understand if and why it will drop lower. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant platform, posted a chart that shows BTC supply is higher than demand. This indicator has accurately predicted previous cycle tops and forecasts a similar Bitcoin price prediction.
While this chart may be convincing, Santiment’s Network Realized Profit and Loss (NPL) indicator shows why a further drop in BTC’s price is likely. The NPL indicator spikes show investors’ booking profits that often lead to top signals. On the contrary, negative spikes show capitulation, i.e., forced transfer of wealth from weak to strong hands.
The NPL spiked on December 5, 2024, and has since collapsed to the zero line. A rally does not begin for Bitcoin price until the NPL dips into negative territory. A prime example is the 2021 cycle, where NPL topped at 18.63B, signaling a BTC top, and crashed down to -1.83B, which formed the cycle bottom that kickstarted a new bull run.
With this outlook in mind, investors can expect a Bitcoin price crash for the NPL metric to flash a capitulation or bottom signal.
Popular crypto trader “wafxles” posted a Bitcoin short trade setup to X, which shows a target of $65,000. A short setup allows a trader to profit as the underlying asset’s price depreciates. This is achieved by borrowing and selling the underlying asset and buying lower.
Shinigami, another popular trader, posted his high timeframe outlook for Bitcoin price. Based on his analysis, there are two key zones:
The recent rejection at $86K confirms that a further uptrend is stifled. The next key level to watch is $80K, a breakdown of which could trigger a selling spree pushing BTC lower. In such a case, the $70K to $60K zone is a key area where Bitcoin price could form a bottom and coincides with crypto trader “wafxles” outlook.
To conclude, investors need to keep a close eye on $80K, which will determine if Bitcoin price will bounce and continue its recovery rally or prolong the downtrend. A breakdown could see $60K levels revisited, but a bounce could send BTC to contest with a $90K hurdle.
A flip of $90K into a support floor could catalyze a bull rally to $100K psychological level or ATHs at $108K.
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