Bitcoin Price Analysis: Trump-Putin talks on Russia vs. Ukraine War Could Drive BTC Rebound to $100K

Bitcoin (BTC) price rose 4% to reclaim the $97,000 on Thursday, driven by positive tailwinds from US and Russia resuming diplomatic relations. Will Michael Saylor’s imminent BTC purchases and ETF filing speculation drive Bitcoin price rebound above $100,000 in the days ahead?

Bitcoin Reclaims $97,000 as Trump Signals Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Talks

Bitcoin’s price rebounded sharply on Thursday, gaining 4% to reclaim the $97,000 level amid renewed optimism surrounding U.S.-Russia diplomatic engagement. This shift follows reports confirming that Washington and Moscow have resumed diplomatic talks, potentially laying the groundwork for a resolution to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Market sentiment had deteriorated last week after hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data reinforced expectations of prolonged US Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening. Investors reduced BTC exposure in anticipation of further rate hikes, triggering a pullback to $93,388. However, geopolitical developments appear to have offset these concerns.

Reuters reported on Feb. 18 that U.S. and Russia had agreed to reopen diplomatic communications channels, triggering positive reactions across global financial markets. Bitcoin price mirrored the risk-on sentiment, rallying 4% within 24 hours of the announcement. In the latest developments, Kremlin official sources have hinted that – Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump could meet this month, in a first face-to-face encounter between leaders of both nation since the war began.

With market confidence improving, BTC price trajectory now hinges on continued geopolitical de-escalation and investor positioning ahead of key economic data releases.

How Will Bitcoin React to a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire?

Geopolitical risk has played a significant role in Bitcoin’s volatility since 2022, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict contributing to inflationary pressures and market instability.  However, a potential ceasefire could reshape global economic conditions, particularly regarding energy prices, trade flows, and regulatory policy.

While major political voices in Europe and the UK called for further funding to support Ukraine’s defense, crypto bettors on the predictions market platform Polymarket have priced in a 67% chance of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia in 2025. This confirms that majority of market watchers are anticipating a ceasefire in the coming months.

A de-escalation scenario could lead to the lifting of economic sanctions, the reopening of critical trade routes, and an increase in Russian oil and gas exports. This would likely reduce energy-driven inflation, reinforcing the case for less hawkish Fed tweaks in the coming months.

Beyond macroeconomic factors, crypto market dynamics could shift as well. A relaxation of financial restrictions may allow Russian investors to re-enter global crypto markets, increasing Bitcoin’s demand. Additionally, a more stable geopolitical backdrop may encourage institutional capital inflows into digital assets, particularly as ETF-driven adoption gains momentum.

With the ongoing 4% BTC price rebound fueled by both geopolitical optimism and institutional accumulation, traders will closely watch upcoming developments for confirmation of a ceasefire. If positive momentum continues, BTC could break through $100,000, testing key resistance levels in the days ahead.

Notably, Michaell Saylor-led firm Strategy, (formerly known as Microstrategy) has announced a decision to raise another $2 billion in debt instruments to fund additional BTC purchases. With altcoin ETF filing nearing approval, an end to the Russian vs. Ukraine could spark the next wave of institutional-driven rally for top-ranked cryptocurrencies including BTC.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Multi-day Closes Above $98,000 Could Mark Local Bottom

Bitcoin price forecast chart below shows BTC hovering near $97,000, rebounding from the lower Bollinger Band ($94,339) as buyers regain control.

The recent two-day rally of 3.78% suggests a potential bottoming pattern forming around the $94,000-$96,000 range. However, a definitive shift in momentum hinges on BTC securing multiple daily closes above $98,000, aligning with the mid-Bollinger Band and key resistance zone.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.66 remains below the neutral 50 level, indicating weak bullish momentum but potential upside if it crosses above its signal line (44.16). A confirmed RSI breakout could accelerate BTC’s move toward the psychological $100,000 mark.

Conversely, failure to reclaim $98,000 may trigger another retest of the $94,000 support, with deeper downside risk toward $92,000 if sellers strengthen.
Volume analysis highlights rising accumulation, with a notable 41.44K BTC traded over the last two days, reinforcing buying interest near current levels.

If geopolitical optimism persists and Bitcoin ETFs maintain steady inflows, bullish continuation remains the favored scenario. However, traders should remain cautious of short-term profit-taking near resistance.