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Highlights
- Bitcoin price stalls below $98K after strong institutional buying last week, posting back-to-back weekend losses under lean trading conditions.
- DeMark predicts S&P 500 top is imminent, expecting technical exhaustion and a drop below 4,835 to trigger a bear market.
- BTC-S&P 500 correlation rises to 0.82, but trade shocks or geopolitics could still help Bitcoin decouple and rally independently.
Bitcoin price briefly crossed $98,200 on Friday before slipping into a two-day pullback, reflecting lower weekend liquidity and growing macro caution.
Bitcoin Stalls Below $98K, Amid Lean Weekend Volumes
Bitcoin slid 0.7% on Sunday, May 4, falling below $96,000 for the first time since midweek. The drop marks a second consecutive day of losses, following a strong institutional-led rally that pushed BTC to a 70-day high of $98,200 on Friday, per Coingecko data.
Despite reclaiming a $2 trillion market capitalization briefly, Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has stalled, coinciding with soft weekend volumes and renewed macro uncertainty.
On a weekly basis, Bitcoin is still up 4.5%, while 30-day performance remains strong at 12.8%, supported by ETF inflows and renewed accumulation from U.S. corporate treasuries.
However, resistance around the $98,000 level has proven tough to break, especially in the absence of clear macro tailwinds.
At the same time, Ethereum’s inability to hold above $1,900 and declining futures trading volume across top exchanges like Binance and CME further confirm the cautious short-term sentiment over the weekend.
DeMark Warns: Bear Market in U.S. Stocks Could Be Imminent
Tom DeMark, creator of the TD Sequential indicator and a trusted technical advisor to major hedge funds, has issued a fresh warning: a U.S. stock market top is imminent and could give way to a full-blown bear market within months.
DeMark, who accurately predicted the February top and April low in the S&P 500, says the index is showing clear signs of exhaustion.
His analysis highlights that two more closing highs in the S&P 500 would complete a 9-count exhaustion cycle, a historically reliable signal for trend reversals.
Once this occurs, DeMark expects a retracement below 4,835 the intraday low from Aprilrepresenting a 20%+ drop from February’s highs.
“A top is imminent. Too much technical damage has been done,” DeMark said,
He also, added that the market remains vulnerable to improvement in global trade outlook or liquidity conditions.
What’s Next: Will DeMark’s Prediction Derail Bitcoin’s $100K Target?
Bitcoin price correlation to traditional markets, especially the S&P 500, has become increasingly relevant in the current macro environment.
On February 19, when China imposed retaliatory tariffs and global markets dipped, Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 fell to a yearly low of 0.27%. At the time, BTC acted as a partial hedge, decoupling from equities.
However, President Donald Trump’s softening stance on tariffs and aggressiv push for rate cuts, have boosted broader market sentiment in recent weeks.
As a result, the BTC/S&P 500 correlation has surged, reaching 0.82% at press time.
This implies that Bitcoin may now respond more directly to U.S. equity moves than earlier this year.
If the market correction predicted by DeMark is driven by geopolitical tensions or inflationary trade tariffs, Bitcoin could attract safe-haven flows and maintain upward momentum.
Historical data shows BTC often benefits from global instability and monetary easing.
On the other hand, if the S&P 500’s decline stems from systemic risk such as a recession, financial contagion, or an energy shock.
Bitcoin may not be spared. In such scenarios, investors typically flee risk assets broadly, and BTC could experience significant drawdowns.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s $100K Outlook Hinges on Crash Catalyst
Bitcoin’s $100K target and sustained $2 trillion market cap remain within reach, but macro risks are now front and center.
Whether Tom DeMark’s bear market call derails the BTC rally will largely depend on what drives the next wave of equity losses.
If it’s policy or trade-related, Bitcoin may rally as a hedge. But if the downturn it triggered by deep economic stress, recession or energy crisis, Bitcoin price could fall with the pack, as Demark predicts
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is driving the current Bitcoin price?
2. How is Bitcoin correlated with the S&P 500?
3. Who is Tom DeMark and why does his prediction matter?
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