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Highlights
- Bitcoin price continues to trade at around $57,000 with no directional bias.
- On-chain data reveals whales bought BTC on the recent dip.
- However, the active addresses metric remains low, which suggests a rally is unlikely.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is stuck in a sideways motion after the recent 30% crash. The recent move from the Bank of Japan has opened the path for buyers to push BTC higher, at least in the short term. Investors can expect a minor rally if a key resistance level is overcome.
Bitcoin Price Stagnates, But Whales Buy Dips
The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike was one of the main reasons for the recent crash in global markets, including a 30% sell-off in Bitcoin price. When BOJ announced that it had no plans to hike the interest rate, the markets recovered, but BTC is still stuck in a rut and shows no signs of moving higher.
The main reason for this can be observed by looking at Santiment’s active addresses metric, which has a downward trending slope. This decline in the key metric shows that addresses interacting with the Bitcoin blockchain have reduced and denote a lack of investor interest.
Despite the aforementioned bearish outlook, BTC whales are active, as shown by the Whale Transaction Count metric. This indicator tracks transfers of whales worth $100,000 or more.
A spike in Whale Transaction Count after a rally is considered bearish, but an uptick in this metric after a crash suggests that whales could be buying the dips. Since August 5, the seven-day moving average of the Whale Transaction Count metric has spiked from roughly 1,200 to 2,700, while BTC price crashed below $50,000, clearly showcasing accumulation.
From a short-term perspective, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Vale (MVRV) metric has also flashed a buy signal. This indicator tracks investors’ average profit/loss that bought BTC in the past month.
The recent 30% crash in Bitcoin price has pushed the 30-day MVRV to slip to -13.39%, showcasing that the investors that purchased BTC in the past month are at an average loss of 13.39%.
A high positive value suggests these investors are in profit, and the holders could sell to realize profits, which could trigger a sell-off. Hence, a high positive value is often viewed as a sell signal. If the 30-day MVRV hovers between -10% to -30% for Bitcoin price, it is considered an opportunity zone or a buy signal. On the other hand, 10% to 30% is treated as a danger zone or sell signal.
BTC Price Analysis: Short-term Rally Likely
All in all, Bitcoin price prediction suggests that BTC is primed for a short-term rally if it can overcome the $57,289 hurdle and flip it into a support floor. Such a development could see BTC attempt a near-5% rally to retest the $60,000 psychological level.
On the other hand, a macroeconomic-drive sell-off that pushes Bitcoin price below $54,450 could risk starting another leg down toward the next key level at $52,287.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Why is Bitcoin's price stuck in a sideways movement?
2. What is the significance of the Whale Transaction Count metric's recent spike?
3. What is the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric indicating?
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