BTC Price Prediction: Why Bitcoin Could Reach $100,000 Despite Global War Tensions

Meanwhile, the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip carries on seven months and 23 days since it began on October 7, 2023. In one way or the other, these wars impact Bitcoin’s performance. This article will delve into how the largest digital asset is faring amid the rising tensions globally and whether it can uphold the rally, gracing investors with a bull run in 2024 to above $100,000.

How Do Geopolitics Impact Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a global asset in a global market—markets, on the other hand, are emotional powerhouses. Since people (investors) control them, they react to news, developments, regulations, and other external uncertainties like war tensions.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin price plummeted 67% in subsequent months reaching $15,476 in May 2022. Although this drop cannot be fully attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war, it contributed significantly to the instability in the market.

Fast-forward to October 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel, killing civilians and taking hostages, Bitcoin reacted with a slight dip, but a significant one, forming a weekly bearish candle.

Amid the tensions in the Middle East and West Asia, BTC price managed to defy all odds and rally to a new all-time high of $73,837, backed by the hype around the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

Nevertheless, last month the tensions could no longer be ignored as the war in West Asia threatened to rope in more nations like Pakistan. The predominantly Muslim nation conflicted with Israel over its operation in Gaza, which has left many civilians, including women and children dead.

The scuffle between Pakistan and Israel resulted in Pakistan sending missiles directly into Israel. This development was a big wake-up call to the world, knowing that both Israel and Pakistan are nuclear powers.

Bitcoin price also reacted to similar tension in April, falling from highs above $70,000 to $60,000. The digital asset continued to reach another low of $56,600  on April 29, before starting the current recovery.

Will Bitcoin Defy Odds To Reach $100,000 In 2024

Bitcoin underwent the four-year halving cycle in April. At the end of the halving, miner rewards were slashed by half from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, effectively reducing newly mined coins from 900 to 450 BTC daily.

This phenomenon is expected to shrink Bitcoin supply gradually, and with demand increasing or even holding still, a parabolic rally could boost BTC to higher levels.

However, several weeks after halving, Bitcoin faces more uncertainties ranging from internal to external forces. Unclear regulations and stubborn inflation in the US are other factors that suppress BTC movements.

Global wars continue to threaten Bitcoin’s future—a concern for many investors.

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs is a big step toward legitimizing the digital asset and the more than decade-old crypto market. ETFs allow investors in the traditional market to seek exposure to BTC by buying shares directly on a stock exchange like Nasdaq.

The impact of the spot ETF has been positive and is expected to continue driving Bitcoin price higher in 2024. Coupled with the supply reduction after halving, a major rally could be thawing.

BTC Price Prediction: Recovery Or More Pain?

Bitcoin price struggles to secure support at $68,000. While this support will be a huge assurance to traders, it may not be enough to reinforce the bullish outlook.

A break above $70,000 and the next hurdle at $72,000 could have a larger impact on the uptrend, making BTC more attractive by reinforcing the possibility of a larger move toward $100,000.

From the chart, two levels stand out; the green band reenforcing the long-term bullish outlook as support, and the red band as a reminder of the previous struggle to break ahead.

Holding above all the three Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) including the 20-week, the 50-week, and the 200-week solidifies Bitcoin’s bullish case. A break above the previous all-time high could ignite FOMO, boosting price movement to $100,000.

Conversely, a downturn in the trend is possible especially with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling to 68 in the neutral region after topping 88 in the overbought in Q1.

Should the correction continue, Bitcoin price prediction shows that losses may surge to test $60,000. Panic would also grip investors leading to more irrational selling in the name of protecting capital. BTC could fall further down to the 50-week EMA at $48,559 in such an event.