Can US CPI Help Bitcoin Price Recovery After Debate Led Slump?

Bitcoin (BTC) price, US and Asian markets saw a risk-off conditions as they collapsed after the Trump and Harris debate on September 10. With the US CPI print, Wednesday could see recovery in BTC.

Bitcoin Price Slides After Trump-Harris Debate

The US presidential election debates saw Donald Trump and Kamala Harris butt heads on September 10. Many suggest that Harris took a lead against Trump with her calm and read-set-go attitude. Polymarket data shows that bettors are in favor of Harris winning the debate with her odds reaching 98% as of September 11. On Tuesday, Bitcoin price closed the daily candlestick with a 1.07% gain, but slid down to $56,000 on Wednesday’s early Asian session.

Bitcoin was not the only risk-on asset to collapse after the Trump-Harris Debate, US Crude Oil dropped 5% and the HangSeng Index dropped 177 points on September 10. 

Regardless, investors are still wondering – Who won the debate? And how will that impact crypto markets and Bitcoin price? While the Trump-Harris debate could have provided short-term volatility, the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will also play a critical role in influencing BTC bias.

Here’s Why This US CPI is Pivotal For BTC Price

The forecast for the headline inflation is 2.7%, which is a reduction from the previous month’s 2.9%. However, the consensus stands at 2.6%. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline inflation for August is 2.5%, much lower than the previous month’s 2.9%. Macroeconomic events like these have a major impact on BTC price. Since the inflation has come in lower than expectations, it is likely to kickstart a rally in risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Here are the three cases based on inflation vs expectations.

1. Inflation lower than expectations: In this case, it might add fuel to the September 18 Fed rate cut decision and cause risk-on assets like Bitcoin to rally.
2. Inflation higher than expectations: This outlook could dampen the optimism and temper expectations of a rally in Bitcoin price to $60,000 or higher.
3. Inflation meets expectations: The crypto markets could rally in anticipation of the Fed rate cut decision on September 18.

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates come September 18. The odds of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 71%, but the upcoming US CPI print will clear the doubts over the size of the rate cuts.

BTC Price Analysis: Is 60K to 70K Possible Before September Ends?

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a clear downtrend with a string of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent swing low formed on September 6 could be a higher low that kick-starts a recovery rally to key levels like $60,000 or $70,000. However, this outlook is reliant on today’s US CPI print.

From a daily perspective, BTC needs to set up a higher high above $65,000 to ensure the end of the six-month down trending consolidation. If successful, Bitcoin price prediction shows a revisit of the all-time high of $73,805 is likely. The timeline for the above forecast is the fourth quarter, which has been a good time to be bullish based on historical data.

On the flipside, if the US CPI print comes in hotter than expectations, the Fed could reduce or alter their rate cut schedule, causing markets to crash. In such a case, Bitcoin price wouldn’t attempt to overcome the $65,000 hurdle, instead crash to the weekly support zone, extending from $50,701 to $52,271.