Cardano Price Bullish Thesis Hints 78% Breakout Amid Negative Sentiment

Cardano price began rising toward the end of last week and into the weekend. On the daily time frame, the asset surged and closed above a crucial resistance level. Only one more barrier remains before ADA price can start making significant gains. Despite this optimistic view, Cardano has been hit by a development issue, as the Chang hard fork was delayed once more by four days. This may have impacted investor confidence as ADA lost its bullish momentum. The asset is trading at $0.3857, down 3.7% in the last 24 hours.

Negative Sentiment is Affecting Cardano Price

Since the Chang hard fork delay, ADA price has displayed some signs of stagnation, including reduced network profitability and volume. 

Data from Santiment shows that the Cardano network daily profit ratio dropped to 0.88, its lowest point since August 18. This means that for every ADA transaction closed in loss, 0.88 were completed in profit, suggesting that most ADA on-chain traders transact in losses.

This observation is further supported by the Network Profit/Loss (NPL) ratio, which has been dropping consecutively for the past three days, showing that recently, coins that have changed addresses were sold at a net loss.

Further, Coinglass data shows that Cardano open interest (OI) and price dropped in the last 24 hours by 2.21% and 3.03%, respectively. This data suggests that traders are closing their Long positions, potentially in losses, as confirmed by Santiment’s NPL data. When traders close their Longs, they are mostly likely to open shorts.

These on-chain metrics suggest that Cardano price might drop further over the next 24 hours as the market sentiment for the asset has turned bearish. However, if ADA can sustain above the current price until the wind blows over, investors still holding can enjoy a 78% surge in price. 

ADA Price Analysis: Key Levels to Watch for 78% Spike

The Cardano price chart shows a downward trend within a descending channel. The price is currently trading near the upper boundary of this channel, suggesting a potential resistance area around $0.40.

The 50-day EMA (green line) is below the 200-day EMA (black line), reinforcing the bearish trend. However, the price action is currently trying to remain above the 50-day EMA, indicating a possible shift in momentum. The ADA price will likely find resistance around $0.40–$0.42, and the 200-day EMA at $0.4355.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is positive (0.21), indicating buying pressure. This suggests accumulation is occurring, providing a basis for a potential upward breakout if sustained.

If Cardano price closes above $0.4355 (200-day EMA) with strong volume, it could confirm a longer-term trend reversal, ideal for long-term entry. Potential targets could be around $0.50, 0.60, and $0.70 for long-term gains if the reversal is confirmed.

If the ADA price fails to hold the 50 EMA support, the channel’s midline near $0.35 is a key support level. If the price pushes further downward, it will find lower support around $0.30 at the channel’s lower boundary.