Cardano Price Resistance Hints 12% Drop as Network Upgrade Nears

The Cardano price has been trending downward for the past couple of weeks owing to bearish market conditions. Nevertheless, the community remains optimistic about the upcoming Chang hard fork upgrade, using it to build hype around the ADA price. 

However, Cardano’s technical analysis shows a different story, with a bearish reversal pattern flashing across the chart. Coupled with the overall market bearish conditions, Chang’s upgrade may not do much to uplift ADA’s price.

Chang Upgrade Is Only 3% Away

The much-awaited Chang hard fork upgrade is nearer today than yesterday. As of August 7, 58% of nodes had migrated to the new v9.1.0 in anticipation of the upgrade. The minimum threshold for Chang to launch is 70%.

As of press time, an additional 9% of nodes have migrated to v9.1.0, bringing the total to 67%. There are only 3% left before the hard fork can go live.

🚨 UPDATE: #Cardano Node Version 9.1.0 = 67% #ChangHardFork https://t.co/QBAvfnAWoW pic.twitter.com/M0QoBe6HAx

— Cardano Feed ($ADA) (@CardanoFeed) August 8, 2024

The excitement in the Cardano community is palpable as talks of Chang and another layer 2 scaling solution, Hydra, saturate the crypto X space. 

The price of Cardano dropped by 1% in the last 24 hours to trade around $0.333. Speculations about Cardano price have increased since the nodes began migrating to v9.1.0, but figures on the ground speak a different story. 

Cardano Price Wants to Shed Some Weight

ADA/USDT price chart shows a downward trend, with the price consistently trading below both the 50-day ($0.3519) and 200-day ($0.389) exponential moving averages (EMA). This indicates strong bearish momentum. The price recently broke below a significant support zone, which has now turned into resistance.

The 50-day EMA at $0.3519 and the 200-day EMA at $0.389 are the immediate resistance levels for ADA price. There is also horizontal resistance around the $0.335–$0.35 range, where the price has struggled to maintain its level.

On the flip side, the next significant support for Cardano price action is likely around $0.3, which is a psychological level and was previously tested in earlier price action. Below that, further support can be expected around $0.2500 if the bearish trend continues.

The recent candlesticks support a bearish bias after a failed attempt to break above the resistance zone. The long wicks on the candles suggest selling pressure is still dominant, with the price unable to sustain higher levels.

The technical indicators also support a bearish outlook in the short term, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50.67, showing a neutral to bearish stance.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is at 0.09, indicating a slightly positive money flow but not strong enough to counter the prevailing bearish trend.

. Following the spike in trading activity during the recent price drop, volume has been steadily dropping as the price recovered data from CoinGecko shows. This is a bearish divergence that makes a downside continuation more likely.

If Cardano price breaks $0.33 and sustains above it, it may signal market strength and invalidate the bearish thesis. ADA price may rise to $0.35, $0.38, and $0.45.