Cardano Price Risks 20% Crash Amid Death Cross and Falling ADA ETF Odds

Cardano price crash continued today, Oct. 30, after the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish cut. ADA token plunged to $0.6065, down by 40 percent from its August highs. Its death cross and the falling ADA ETF approval odds mean that it may crash further soon.

Cardano Price Technical Analysis Points to a Steeper Dive

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Cardano price has dropped from the August high of $1.0196 to a low of $0.6065 today. It has recently dropped below the important support level at $0.6858, its lowest level in August. 

Worse, the coin has formed a death cross pattern, which normally leads to more downside. This pattern happens when the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross each other. The last time ADA price formed this pattern it crashed by double digits after that.

Cardano price has also formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a common bearish sign. It also formed a bearish flag pattern and is now nearing the ultimate support of the Murrey Math Lines. It is below the Supertrend indicator.

Therefore, the most likely ADA price forecast 2025 is bearish, with the next target being at $0.50, which is about 20% below the current level. This target coincides with the extreme oversold level and the lowest swing in July this year. 

On the other hand, a jump above the key resistance level at $0.6858 will invalidate the bearish Cardano price outlook. It will point to further gains, potentially to the ultimate resistance level at $0.9765.

ADA ETF Odds Crash on Polymarket

One potential reason why the value of Cardano may crash soon is that the odds of an ADA ETF approval are falling. Despite its popularity and a $24 billion market cap, Cardano has attracted just one ETF application by Grayscale. In contrast, other top coins like XRP and Solana have received over 9 applications each. 

Data compiled on Polymarket shows that the possibility of an approval fell to 68%. This is a big decline considering that these odds stood at 96% in September.

The falling Cardano ETF odds is also happening in a week when Solana and Hedera (HBAR) funds started trading. As such, there is still a possibility that the Grayscale Cardano ETF will be approved this year.

Cardano has not become popular among issuers because of the lingering concerns about its ecosystem. Unlike Solana, BSC, and Ethereum, Cardano has no active ecosystem, with its total value locked being less than $300 million.