Economist Explains What Could Fuel 2025 Bitcoin Price Rally

Alex Krüger, an economist and popular crypto analyst, explained how the US Federal Reserve’s stance in 2025 could serve as a tailwind for the ongoing Bitcoin rally. This comment from Krüger comes as BTC is up 4.34% from its January 1 swing low of $92,840. Bitcoin price today and trades at $3,450.1.

*bitcoin price updated as of 11 PM.

Economist Explains Key 2025 Tailwind For Bitcoin price Rally

As noted above, Alex Krüger, explained that the “timing of the Fed going back dovish” in 2025 could fuel Bitcoin price rally. A dovish Fed comment would mean that the interest rates could be slashed, triggering more borrowing and spending, aka a risk-on scenario. Such an outlook would mean that risky assets like Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and stocks could shoot higher.

Krüger adds that Fed’s dovish comment in 2025 could disrupt crypto’s habit of forming a top around the end of first quarter. He supports this statement by adding that Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market would follow suit if “equities ramp up hard in March or April.”

He concludes his bullish X post by noting that the macro outlook “trumps” seasonality and Bitcoin’s popular four-year cycles.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Has BTC Price Rally Begun?

CME’s one-hour Bitcoin price chart shows a gap, extending from $94,495 to $94,970, created between December 31, 2024, and January 1, 2025. Typically, price fills these gaps via a retracement or pullback in an act of rebalancing. Hence, despite the recent run-up in the past 48 hours, Bitcoin could retrace lower to fill the aforementioned gap seen on the CME BTC price chart.

Moreover, the start and end of the day, week, quarter and year tend to witness added volatility, which is not just limited to cryptocurrencies but also the stock market. Hence, there is a high chance that Bitcoin retraces into the CME gap, stretching from $94,500 to $94,970.

This short-term retracement is unlikely to end the Bitcoin price recovery rally, which began at the start of a new year. Hence, investors can remain confident as the long-term bullish outlook and the recovery bounce remains intact.

However, if Bitcoin price fails to hold above the $93,000 support level, it could jeopardize the uptrend. If a daily candlestick closes below the said level, it would invalidate the bullish thesis and trigger a further correction. Bitcoin price prediction, in this instance, indicates a near-3% crash to $90,000.

Bitcoin Price Targets If BTC Dips Below $90,000

Over the past six months or so, the Bitcoin price has crashed at the start of every month. This correction sweeps the lows created at the end of the previous month. This drop is a great buying opportunity because every single sweep after the start of the new month has led to at least a 24% rally in the next three weeks or less. The highest rally BTC witnessed after such a deviation was in November, where the biggest crypto by market cap rose nearly 50%.

If history rhymes, then a drop below $90,000 is likely. Following this dip, if BTC rallies 24% from $90,000, investors can expect an all-time high of roughly $113,000. However, a 50% gain would put Bitcoin price at $135,000.

Bitcoin looks increasingly promising from a technical perspective. Economist Alex Krüger’s insights suggest that the US Federal Reserve’s stance could serve as a tailwind for the ongoing Bitcoin rally. The potential for a dovish Fed comment to disrupt crypto’s seasonal trends and fuel a risk-on scenario is a significant bullish indicator. Krüger notes that the macro outlook “trumps” seasonality and Bitcoin’s popular four-year cycles, making a strong case for a continued rally. From a technical analysis standpoint, Bitcoin price could hit $113K or $135K if history rhymes.