Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH Faces $2,500 Breakdown Risk Amid $16B Decline in Whale Demand

Ethereum price consolidated around the $2,700 for the better part of the past week, as bullish and bearish catalyst counteracted. On-chain data shows a $16 billion decline in ETH whale transaction volumes could title momentum in favor of the bears. 

Ethereum (ETH) Flatlines at $2,700 as Bulls and Bears Lock Horns

Ethereum (ETH) price has displayed an unusually flat performance this week as bullish and bearish market signals counteracted each other. On the bearish side, weakening whale demand and persistent macroeconomic uncertainties have weighed on ETH’s upside potential. The latest on-chain data from IntoTheBlock indicates that institutional participation has significantly waned over the past two weeks, reducing the likelihood of sustained upward momentum.

Conversely, ETH price action has remained resilient amid broader crypto market consolidation. While Bitcoin’s dominance continues to suppress Ethereum’s relative strength, optimism surrounding future ETF approvals for altcoins has helped maintain ETH within its current range. Additionally, major ETH staking platforms have continued to see inflows, suggesting that long-term holders remain confident despite short-term volatility.

According to market data, Ethereum (ETH) has remained within a tight trading range, opening the week at $2,693 and currently trading at $2,701 as of February 15. This marginal 0.3% movement underscores a neutral market stance, with traders awaiting a definitive catalyst to dictate ETH’s next directional move. With dwindling whale activity and a precarious technical setup, Ethereum could soon be at risk of a breakdown below $2,500 if selling pressure intensifies.

Ethereum Whale Demand Plunges $16B in Two Weeks

While spot market sentiment remains neutral, ETH on-chain transaction patterns suggest potential downside risks ahead. The latest data from IntoTheBlock’s Large Transaction Volume metric reveals a significant drop in high-value ETH transfers over the past two weeks, signaling reduced interest from institutional investors and large holders.

The chart above indicates that Ethereum’s large transaction volume fell from $23.5 billion on February 3 to $7.3 billion by February 14. This $16.2 billion decline represents a major contraction in market demand, explaining why ETH’s price has struggled to sustain momentum. Such a sharp decline in transaction volume typically suggests waning institutional interest, particularly as capital shifts toward other assets like Dogecoin (DOGE) and XRP, which have gained traction amid the SEC’s recent ETF acknowledgment.

Historically, large transaction volume serves as a key leading indicator for market sentiment. A sustained downturn in this metric often precedes further price weakness, as fewer whales are willing to absorb selling pressure. If this trend continues, ETH may face additional downside risks, particularly if buying interest fails to recover in the coming weeks.

Ethereum Price Forecast: $2,500 Breakdown Risks Heighten

Ethereum price forecast shows the ETH market momentum remains precarious as it struggles to reclaim key resistance levels amid fading institutional demand. The daily chart highlights persistent downward pressure, with ETH trading below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2,821 and its 100-day EMA at $3,044. These levels now serve as formidable resistance zones, preventing any meaningful recovery attempts.

The Parabolic SAR indicator continues to flash bearish signals, with its dots hovering above price action, reinforcing the downtrend. Additionally, the Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator remains deeply negative at -99, indicating that bearish momentum remains dominant.

If ETH fails to reclaim the $2,821 resistance level in the coming sessions, a retest of $2,500 appears increasingly likely. A break below this key psychological support could expose ETH to deeper losses, potentially targeting the $2,300 region. However, if Ethereum manages to attract fresh buying interest, reclaiming the 50-day EMA could shift momentum in favor of the bulls, allowing for a potential recovery toward $3,000.

With institutional demand waning and technical indicators skewing bearish, Ethereum remains at risk of further declines. Traders should closely monitor large transaction volumes and key resistance levels to gauge ETH’s next major move.