Ethereum Price Forecast As Crypto Markets Prepare for Trump Harris Debate

Ethereum price gained slightly over the last 24 hours, but the asset is struggling to rise. Between a death cross in early August and dwindling liquidity on the network, ETH faces the risk of a 50% crash to $1,340. Additionally, a popular analyst, Benjamin Cowen predicts that ETH could drop to $1,200 by the end of this year.

ETH’s struggles come amid a recovering market following Bitcoin’s turnaround. The upcoming Trump-Harris debate will be a key factor in determining which direction ETH takes next.

Trump Harris Debate Impact on Ethereum Price?

Donald Trump will face off against Vice President Kamala Harris today in a presidential debate. The latest polls from the Silver Bulletin show that 61.5% of the electoral college would favor Trump clinching a win compared to Harris’s 38%.

However, the popular vote figures probability show a different story, revealing that Kamala is ahead of Trump by 11.4%.

#Latest @NateSilver538 Forecast:

Chance of winning:
Trump 64% (+29)
Harris 35%
.
Electoral votes:
Trump 282
Harris 256https://t.co/t2BOJDEpnT https://t.co/XsR4KwkNFS pic.twitter.com/nuPikShlJG

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 10, 2024

If Harris emerges as the debate winner, it may negatively impact the crypto market, including the price of ETH. The Biden-Harris Administration, through the U.S SEC, has been cracking down on cryptocurrencies since it was voted into office.

On the other hand, Trump is an outspoken and vocal pro-crypto candidate, as was evident at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville. If Trump wins the debate, the crypto market and the price of ETH may react by surging as his poll numbers and chances of winning the election in November rise.

ETH Price Drop Likely: On-chain Metrics

Despite the statistical data showing Trump’s chances of winning are high, the Ethereum price continues to drop lower. 

Onchain metrics from Santiment show a surge in whale transactions on September 9 and 10, which may indicate potential upcoming price volatility.

Additionally, Coinglass Exchange Netflows on September 9 were positive to the tune of $20.15 million. Positive net flows often indicate that holders are moving their ETH to exchanges, possibly to sell, which is bearish for the ETH price.

The Ethereum market liquidity has dropped 20% since the introduction of the Ether ETF. According to data from Jacob Joseph, research analyst at CCData, “Although the market liquidity for ETH pairs on centralized exchanges remains greater than what was at the beginning of the year, the liquidity has dropped by nearly 45% since its peak in June.” 

One of the reasons for declining could be poor market conditions and lower trading activity, which is seasonal and usually increases during the summer months.

With the decline in liquidity, the market cannot handle large buy or sell orders, which means there may be higher sensitivity to large trades.

Ethereum Price Analysis: Will ETH Reach $1,340?

Alongside the liquidity drop, the price of ETH has also lost over 25% of its value since the launch of the ETFs, contributing to the challenging market environment.

ETH price action flashed a death cross on August 11, a notorious bearish signal. Furthermore, the price chart shows ETH broke out of a bear pennant, a continuation pattern. The price target for the market structure dictates that the ETH price may drop to $1,340, a 42% drop from the current price. Is it possible the crypto market has not bottomed yet?

Should good news develop from the Trump Harris debate, Ethereum price prediction shows the asset may rally and break above the 50 and 200-day exponential moving averages, invalidating the death cross and the bearish thesis. ETH price would surge to $3,600 and finally to $4,000 before making a new all-time high.