Highlights
Ethereum (ETH) is gaining today, June 24, with a 7% spike within 24 hours to trade at $2,409 at press time. Amid these gains, ETH is now mirroring a 2024 bull pattern that drove a massive rally to $4,000. This bullish fractal pattern could see Ethereum price break about $2,800 as crypto prices continue to rally. Will history repeat itself, or will the bearish sentiment outlined in surging Binance short positions impact ETH’s uptrend?
Ethereum price has been trading within a tight consolidation range for more than a month now, after the rally that commenced in May paused. It briefly made a bearish breakdown from this range over the weekend as bears sold into the fear of geopolitical tensions. However, traders quickly bought the dip on Tuesday after President Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire deal, which spiked the risk appetite among crypto traders.
This price action mirrors what happened between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. During the last quarter of 2023, the ETH price underwent a parabolic rally that later paused between December and January as prices entered a consolidation. It broke out of this range after more than a month with a strong rally that drove the price from around $2,200 to a peak of $4,000 within months.
Why This Matters? The last time this fractal appeared (Jan 2024), ETH rallied 80% in 6 weeks.
To validate the bullish fractal pattern, Ethereum price would have to overcome the strong resistance at $2,800. A decisive close above the upper boundary of this consolidation range could then unlock the next bullish leg above $4,000.
The RSI supports this fractal pattern as it is making the same move that it did in January 2024 before the bullish breakout occurred., Traders should wait until this indicator crosses above 50 to confirm a strong bullish momentum.
However, a recent CoinGape analysis noted that ETH traders are cashing out, which could pose a risk to the price recovery and the eventual breakout from consolidation. The sell-side pressure from these traders may force Ethereum price to remain in consolidation.
After rallying by more than 7% today, Ethereum recorded one of the biggest short squeezes in history. Within 24 hours, data from CoinGlass shows that more than $112 million in short positions witnessed liquidations, marking the biggest short squeeze scenario since May 9.
This liquidation event aided an Ethereum price rally as short sellers started to buy ETH to close their positions. However, despite facing intense losses, futures traders on Binance are still increasing bearish bets. In just 24 hours, the percentage of Binance traders with short positions on ETH has spiked from 28% to 39%.
This positioning supports a bullish Ethereum price prediction. If these positions are suddenly closed, the buy-side pressure will increase significantly to aid a rally.
To sum up, ETH price is at a critical point as a bullish fractal pattern comes into play. The pattern hints at a breakout rally above $2,800 in the near term. If this rally occurs, short sellers who are aggressively opening positions on Ethereum may exit the market, accelerating price gains.
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