Can Ethereum Price Break $4,000 Post-ETH ETF, to Surpass Meme Coins YTD Surge?

Ethereum price still struggles to break above $3,300 three days after ETF launch. Meanwhile, meme coins emerged as the best investment YTD, outperforming other sectors in the Ethereum ecosystem, according to Santiment.
Large Grayscale outflows choke the Ethereum ETF in its infancy, but market participants expect ETH price will be sensitive to inflows in the coming days. ETH price is trading at $3,233, up 2.8% in the last 24 hours as Bitcoin reclaimed the $67,000 mark.

ETF Anticipation Fails to Boost Ethereum Price

The much-awaited Ethereum ETFs launched on July 23, raking a total volume of $1.11 billion on the first trading day. The cumulative inflow for that day was $107 million, dropping into the negative the following day. Comparatively, the first day of Bitcoin ETF trading saw about $4.6 billion in total volume. 

The Ethereum ETF approval is a big development in the crypto industry, as there have never been two crypto ETFs. The approval also ignited further speculation of more ETFs to come. The most probable is a potential Solana ETF, as VanEck and 21Shares filed 19-4bs.

Nevertheless, despite the magnitude of the news, ETH price dropped due to the general market outlook.

Meme Coins Outshine the Ethereum Ecosystem YTD

Coins such as Bonk (BONK), Dogwifhat (WIF), and Pepe (PEPE) performed better than any other Ethereum sector year-to-date, as Boutique Digital Asset Research found. Layer 2 networks sported the worst performance among the analyzed sectors. Nevertheless, all the sectors, underperformed Bitcoin on relative and risk-adjusted bases.

Correlation analysis also showed that ETH Betas are positively correlated with ETH. Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP), and Synthetix (SNX) showed the highest correlations. One thing that remained constant through the bull run that began in June 2023 with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF announcement was meme tokens.

Ethereum was the main platform for these coins, but its competitor Solana has taken its spot and has spawned multiple billion-dollar-market-cap meme coins.

This is likely why Boutique Digital Asset Research shows investing in Solana (SOL) year-to-date (YTD) provided better risk-adjusted returns.

Technical Analysis: Ethereum Price Eyes Above $4,000 As Bitcoin Recovers 

The ETH/BTC chart’s current trend is predominantly downward, indicated by the lower highs and lower lows. The recent candles show a sharp decline followed by a small recovery, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation phase after a strong downtrend. 

The price action is trending below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a continued downtrend. Ethereum price forecast shows the asset will likely continue dropping against Bitcoin until the next major support level is around 0.0447 BTC. Conversely, the EMAs provide resistance around 0.05336 BTC and 0.05276 BTC.

The ETH/USD price reached the 200 EMA at $3,125 before rebounding. The 50 EMA ($3,360) currently acts as the asset’s immediate resistance and may push the price downward. However, a break above this barrier may catapult Ethereum’s price to the previous yearly high around$4,095.

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