Is SUI Price About To Crash As DeFi TVL Plunges?

Sui price joined other altcoins in bouncing back after falling sharply following the hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate decision. It has been one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies this year, rising by 440%. Will the Sui token price crash now that the total value locked (TVL) in its DeFi protocols and the number of developer commits are falling?

SUI Price At Risk of Crash As DeFi TVL Sinks

Sui price is trading at $4.56 on Wednesday and is close to its all-time high of $4.9. One reason for its surge is that the volume of assets in its DeFi protocols is rising, and currently sits at over $1.7 billion. This growth makes it the ninth-biggest blockchain in the industry. It is bigger than other popular chains like Avalanche, Aptos, and Polygon.

However, the ongoing surge in DeFi assets is mostly because of the ongoing Sui price surge, which has lifted the volume of its assets. The TVL has been in a downtrend in SUI terms after peaking in September this year. It has moved from 730 million in SUI terms to the current 385 million, its lowest level since April. This is a sign that its DeFi protocols are not doing all that well, which could, in theory, affect its price.

SUI Network Commits And Core Developers Falling

The other potential risk for the SUI price is that the number of developer commits is falling. Commits refers to changes made by developers and saved to a network. Ideally, more commits are signs that the network is seeing more activity. 

Data shows that the number of commits in December stands at 950, down from a peak of 5.3k in May last year. They peaked at 2.93k in January this year, and the trend has not been all that promising. The number of core developers has dropped to 44 from the year-to-date high of 86.

However, Sui is also seeing some positive fundamentals. For example, the volume of stablecoins in its chain has risen to over $377 million. Its DEX protocols like Cetus, Bluefin, Kriya, and DeepBook are also seeing strong volume.

SUI Technical Analysis As Rising Wedge Forms

The daily chart shows that the SUI token price has been in a strong uptrend. Using trend-following principles, this uptrend will likely continue for a while since it remains above all moving averages.

However, some potential risks have come up and point to a potential retreat. It is forming a rising wedge chart pattern, a popular bearish sign. This pattern happens when an asset forms two ascending and converging trendlines. A bearish breakout happens when they near the tip.

The other risk is that it is nearing the extreme overshoot level of the Murrey Math Lines, where most assets retreat. Also, it remains much higher than the 50-day moving average, meaning that a mean reversion may happen. 

A breakdown would lead it to the major S&R pivot point at $3.125, which is about 30% below the current level. 

On the flip side, a move above the year-to-date high of $4.96 will invalidate the Sui price bearish view and point to more gains to $6.