Solana (SOL) Price on the Brink: 30% Crash Incoming as $2.5B Flees Network?

Solana trades at $134 today, June 23, with the price witnessing intense volatility within 24 hours that has seen it fluctuate between a daily low of $126 and a daily high of $135. As the market sentiment remains in fear due to the Israel-Iran conflict, a bearish rounding top pattern has emerged amid dropping network, indicating that the Solana price could crash by 30% and fall below $100.

Solana Price Risks 30% Amid Rounding Top Breakdown

Solana has formed a rounding top pattern on the one-day chart. This pattern usually indicates that the price is about to undergo a bearish reversal after the bullish momentum that pushed SOL price from below $100 in April to the May 23 swing high of $187 loses strength.

The bearish setup indicates that the Solana price topped out in May, and as sellers gradually sold SOL in recent weeks, while buying pressure remained weak, a gradual downtrend ensued. The key support level of this pattern now lies at $126, which SOL tested on June 22 after the crypto market crashed with massive liquidations.

If Solana is unable to defend the $126 support, it will confirm the bearish reversal outlined in the rounding top. In this case, the price could crash by 32% to $85, with such a downtrend mirroring the height of this pattern.

The rising ADX line indicates that the current downtrend is growing stronger, supporting the bearish thesis that the price of Solana might lose the neckline support. This is further supported by the MACD, which has dropped to the negative region, confirming that a bearish momentum is underway.

If Solana price can reclaim the upper level of this rounding top pattern at $187, this bearish thesis will be invalidated, and SOL may go back into consolidation or cross above the psychological level of $200.

On-Chain Signals Also Warn of a SOL Crash

Besides the technical structure outlining a bearish Solana price prediction, network activity is also declining, causing weak utility and demand for the SOL token. Data from DeFiLlama shows that in less than two months, the total market cap for stablecoins on the Solana blockchain has declined from 13.137 billion to 10.638 billion.

Besides shedding $2.5 billion in market cap within seven weeks, the number of DeFi users on the network has also dropped from the peak of 6 million on June 2 to 2.95 million at press time. As long as network activity slumps, SOL price may not reach $200 any time soon.

This decline could force bulls to lose the support level at $126, triggering a crash below $100. This is because, as users demand fewer SOL tokens to handle transactions on the blockchain, while spot buying volumes are low, there will be fewer traders to absorb the sold coins.

However, if Bitcoin rebounds and Solana regains $187, the bearish pattern would be invalidated, opening the door for a rally toward $200.

To sum up, Solana price is testing critical neckline support at $126 amid a rounding top pattern formation. If the price crashes below this support, SOL may crash by 30% to below $100. Network activity remains bearish as the number of returning addresses and stablecoins on the blockchain drops.