SUI Price at Make-or-Break $2 Level, Will $123M Token Unlocks Trigger Crash to $1.65?

Sui (SUI) is up 1.8% today on June 30, and trades at $2.83. The altcoin’s 24-hour trading volumes were up by 37% to $760 million, signalling a notable spike in market interest. Despite this, the SUI price appears to be teetering on the edge of a possible crash below $2, following the formation of a rare inverted cup and handle pattern and looming $123 million token unlocks in the next seven days.

SUI Price at Risk as Bearish Pattern Warns of 38% Crash

SUI’s daily timeframe chart shows the creation of an inverted cup and handle pattern. This formation indicates that the price is on the verge of a steep decline if the bullish momentum loses strength. The slight uptick formed by the handle’s ascending parallel channel will likely weaken, and the downtrend that started in May may continue.

The decline after this pattern is equal to the depth of the cup, signalling that a 38% crash could ensue from the support level of $2.66. If SUI price loses this support level, the dip might see it tumble below $2 and record a 2025 low of $1.651.

This pattern is not the only factor signaling a potential price crash, as SUI also formed a death cross last week, which coincided with a slight uptrend. This indicates that the slight uptrend that formed the pattern’s handle is weak and could falter, pushing SUI below the $1.651 support.

At the same time, the Money Flow Index (MFI) is facing rejection once again in its attempt to cross above the mean level of 50. This is a sign of weak buying pressure that makes a bearish SUI price prediction even more likely to occur. This development occurs as the long-term outlook for the crypto market remains wildly bullish, with the likes of Robert Kiyosaki forecasting a $1M BTC target.

Besides having a bearish technical structure, a key event unfolding within the SUI ecosystem this week also signals that more headwinds lie ahead.

$123M Token Unlocks Also Signals Drop

Data from Tokenomist shows that in the next seven days, more than 44 million SUI tokens valued at more than $123 million at the current SUI price will be unlocked. The impact that these tokens will have on the price will depend on whether the recipients choose to sell or hold.

Out of these unlocked tokens, $35 million will go to the community reserve, and these are less likely to be sold. $5.81 million going towards the Mysten Labs Treasury and $54 million for Series B funding may also not be sold, and have little to no impact on the SUI price.

However, the main risk lies with the 9.98 million SUI tokens valued at $28 million that will go to the early contributors. The batch could sell, making a crash possible if the tokens move to exchanges. This event could also erase the optimism towards SUI triggered by Grayscale adding SUI to the Q3 crypto list.

In summary, the price of SUI is facing major volatility this week due to the upcoming unlock of 44 million tokens. The formation of a bearish reversal pattern and the recent death cross signal indicate that a looming crash below $2 is likely.