Toncoin Price Hits Monthly 38.5M TON Resistance; Correction To Continue?

Toncoin price surged 9% on Friday in the U.S. Trading hours, defying the crypto market downturn. The lack of follow-up from Bitcoin after Thursday’s rally has raised concern over the market for another pullback before market recovery resumes. Will TON buyers follow this plan or continue the forward March? 

Toncoin Price Hints a Potential Reversal

The cryptocurrency market showed a notable recovery this week as a relief rally/cool-off reaction to the July market correction. While the Bitcoin price rallied from $49600 to $62700— a 26% increase, the altcoin market picked up higher momentum.

This scenario is reflected in the Toncoin price upswing from $4.73 to $6.7, which records 42% growth, while the market cap boosts to $16.93 Billion.

Additionally, a significant increase in Total Value Locked (TVL) supports the TON price rally. According to data from DefiLlama, the TVL rebounded from $485 million to $625 million this week, marking a 28% rise. Such a rise typically indicates growing investor confidence and increased capital flowing into the ecosystem, which can strengthen the underlying asset’s price. 

This renewed growth in TVL, which played a key role in Toncoin’s recovery earlier in 2024, suggests that the current price momentum may be sustained, potentially leading to further gains.

Therefore, if the altcoin breaks above the overhead trendline with the daily candle closing, the buyers could drive a 24% surge to challenge the $8.29 All-time-high resistance.

However, as per the In/Out of the Money Around Price(IOMAP) on-chain metric, approximately 3.56 million addresses hold around 38.7M TON tokens, with an average purchase price of $6.58. This metric helps determine critical support and resistance levels, as large clusters of “in the money” addresses can provide strong support. In contrast, “out of the money” clusters may act as resistance during price movements.

Therefore, If the market sentiment remains cautious about a potential downturn, these aforementioned addresses could dump their tokens at breakeven, which may bolster the supply pressure in the future.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)slope wavering around the overhead trendline provides additional resistance against buyers.

Thus, a potential reversal could plummet the Toncoin price 28% down to retest multi-month support of $4.7.