Toncoin Price Risks $4 Breakdown as Network Growth Stalls

Toncoin price has retreated by 44% from the year-to-date high, and is at risk of further downside. TON may continue falling as popular cryptocurrencies in its ecosystem like Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and Notcoin crash. More data show that key network metrics have either stalled or deteriorated.

Toncoin Price Pressured as Network Growth Fades

Data by TonStats show that the Toncoin ecosystem is not doing well. For example, the number of transactions per day has dropped to 5.6 million, down from over 16 million in September this year.

Toncoin transactions per day | Source: Tonstats

More data show that the number of on-chain wallet activations per day has dropped from 650,000 in September to 110,000. 

Additionally, the number of Toncoins minted per day has risen to over 74,000, the highest level in almost a year. At the same time, TON’s token burn trend has deteriorated, with the number of these burns moving to 7,500. 

TON price has also dived because of the performance of the top tap-to-earn and play-to-earn tokens in its ecosystem like Hamster Kombat, Notcoin, and Catizen. These tokens have all dived by over 50% from their highest levels this year, a trend that may continue.

According to DefiLlama, TON Blockchain’s DeFi TVL has dropped to $347 million, making it the 21st-biggest player in the industry. At its peak, it ranked among the top ten DeFi blockchain networks in the crypto space.

TON Price Analysis Shows Weak Technicals

Toncoin price chart by TradingView

Toncoin price peaked at $8.28 in June and has retreated by over 40% to $4.67. It recently formed a death cross pattern as the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other. Cryptocurrencies and other assets tend to decline sharply whenever the death cross is triggered.

TON price is hovering at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement point and slightly below the ultimate support of the Murrey Math Lines. 

On the positive side, there are signs that it has formed a double-bottom pattern at $4.50, and whose neckline is at $4.50. A double top is a popular bullish reversal sign.

Therefore, if Toncoin price breaks below the double-bottom point at $4.50, it will risk falling below the extreme oversold level of $4 followed by the 61.8% retracement level at $3.88. The latter price is about 15% below the current level. 

On the flip side, if the double-bottom pattern works well, it means that the TON token price could jump to the neckline at $6.15, 31% upside from the current point.