Will Bitcoin Price Hit $50k in September? Insights from Historical Trends

The consolidation trend in Bitcoin price prolonged into Saturday, showcasing a modest intraday gain of 0.16%. The neutral candle formation for the past few days has surged uncertainty among crypto participants, impacting the altcoin market as well. However, the struggle to maintain the recovery trend could be linked to significant outflow from BTC ETFs and whale selling. Can the buyers counter this?

Bitcoin Price to Rebound Amid Flag Formation

This week, the Bitcoin price witnessed a notable downswing from $65000 to $58900, accounting for a 9.5% drop. The declining price has broken below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, giving sellers a stronger hold on the asset.

Moreover, a Bitcoin whale/institution recently deposited around 2,364 BTC (worth around $140 Million) into the cryptocurrency exchange Binance, according to Lookonchain. Typically, the largest holders selling accelerate the negative sentiment in the market.

A whale/institution deposited 2,364 $BTC($140M) into #Binance 4 hours ago.

Address:
3NVeXmBcmXsBSvXgpQuXWuGg4pDBDEWEok pic.twitter.com/kwiOxGe7ei

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) August 31, 2024

If the bearish momentum persists, the BTC price could plunge 15% to retest the combined support of $50000 and support the trendline of the flag pattern. This bullish continuation pattern is known to drive a temporary counter-trend move within the two trendlines for buyers to recuperate bullish momentum. 

Until the chart pattern is intact, the Bitcoin price prediction maintains a sideways to bullish trend.

Here’s Why BTC Bull Market Still Has Room to Run

A recent analysis by Axel Adler Jr. suggests that the current Bitcoin bull market, which has been ongoing for 628 days, may still have room to run before reaching its peak. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets last an average of 796 days, while bear markets typically endure for around 337 days.

The data indicates that while the current bull cycle has seen significant gains, it has yet to surpass the average duration of past bull markets. Therefore, the ongoing correction trend in Bitcoin price could offer buyers an opportunity to accumulate at a discount.

History does not have to repeat itself, but statistics suggest otherwise:

On average, a bull market lasts 796 days.
On average, a bear market lasts 337 days.

The current bull cycle has been going on for 628 days, which hasn’t even reached the average yet. pic.twitter.com/CKWDxqVPWD

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 31, 2024

Therefore, the BTC price could rebound from bottom support of $53500 or $50000, bolstering the next recovery phase to surpass flag pattern resistance. A bullish breakout from the overhead trendline at $66000 could drive a rally to $83000.