Will BTC Price Rally to $110K This Week or Crash Below $100K?

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.40% today after closing the weekend on a positive note. However, the BTC price currently faces a make-or-break moment amid declining volatility that hints at a violent move. Additionally, the spot and perpetual order books reveal that investors are looking to sell. Will the Bitcoin price crash below $100,000 this week or extend its recent bounce and rise to $110,000?

If BTC price can produce a higher low above $100,000, it would signal strength and potentially kickstart a rally to $110,00. The odds of this happening are very low due to the sell-side skewed orderbook and price analysis that reveals a make-or-break moment on the one-day timeframe.

BTC Price Analysis: Bitcoin’s Make-or-Break Moment

After dropping 6.10% between June 3 and 5, the BTCUSD pair formed a local low at $100,377 on Coinbase. As of this writing, BTC price trades at $105,562, contesting the June 3 swing high at $106,901. From a technical perspective, traders are paying close attention to the said swing high. If Bitcoin manages to create a higher high, it will create a bullish market structure shift, which is a key signal before a bull trend develops.

On the other hand, a rejection at $105,562 or roughly $106,000 will signal weakness and potentially continue the downtrend, opening the path for the BTC price to set a lower low.

Key BTC Price Levels to Watch

As noted in the daily Bitcoin chart, here are some key support levels to watch if BTC rejects at $106,000.

1. The $100,000 psychological level is the first key barrier. A breakdown of this could trigger steep corrections.
2. The $93,000 to $92,000 is a zone where the CME gap previously formed and remains unfilled. These gaps often serve as strong support and lead to downtrend reversals.
3. The best buy zone from a technical perspective is between $91,650 and $87,500, which is the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the Bitcoin price rally from $74,420 to $112,000.

On the other hand, if BTC price flips the $106,000 resistance level into support, it could face headwinds from these levels:

1. The previous all-time high at $109,358 or $110,000 is the first critical hurdle to overcome.
2. $112,000 is also a key level where investors are likely to break even, leading to a spike in selling pressure.

Furthermore, the minting of $1 billion Tether (USDT) adds credence to increasing demand and could propel BTC to ATH, if it can clear the aforementioned hurdles.

Bitcoin Order Books Flash Sell Signals

Data from CoinGlass shows that the Bitcoin price is facing rejection around $105,562, due to the sell-side skewed spot and perpetual order books at a 2% depth. This means that investors are selling their spot and perpetual holdings. Typically, market dynamics dictate the direction of Bitcoin price. If limit-bids and aggressive buyers fail to overcome this selling pressure, it leads to a correction. On the other hand, if limit buyers absorb this selling pressure, BTC price will extend the recent recovery bounce.

Kiyotaka’s aggregated order book that combines spot and perpetual data from Coinbase, Binance and other popular exchanges shows $165 million worth of selling pressure up to $108,000. As a result, the Bitcoin price outlook remains bearish. Moreover, BTC’s recent rejection due to limit asks at $106,300 has triggered a 1% drop at the time of writing.

Although BTC price has dropped nearly 1% from the $106,502 high to its current trading price of $105,530, a potential bounce will face severe selling pressure from ‘limit asks’ placed between $107,000 and $108,000.

Investors should note that a strong limit buy placed at $103,800 is a suitable entry point for speculating on a potential bounce. Failure to hold here could lead to a breakdown of the $100,000 psychological level. As noted in a previous CoinGape article, a breakdown of this key level could potentially crash the BTC price to $92K, where the CME gap formed on April 22, 2025, remains unfilled.

Declining BTC ETF Outflows & Volatility

A popular crypto analyst and influencer noted that a “violent resolution” awaits the BTC price as the volatility drops to 3.99. A drop in volatility leads to consolidation that often resolves with an impulsive breakout that causes volatility to spike again.

Fundamentals and investor outlook also remain bearish in the short term, as BlackRock began accumulating Ethereum (ETH) by offloading BTC. This is also reflected in SoSo Value’s spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which have noted outflows for BTC in the past few days instead of inflows, indicating capital rotation to ETH.

Overall, the short-term outlook for the Bitcoin price remains uncertain, but is partially skewed in favor of the bears. A breakdown of $100K could lead to a brutal sell-off.

For a long-term Bitcoin price prediction between 2025 and 2030: Read This