Surprise Nonfarm Payroll Miss Triggers Bitcoin Price Sell-Off

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the monthly Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday. According to the data, the NFP increased by 114,000 in July, missing expectations of 175,000 and falling significantly behind June’s 260,000.

Bitcoin and altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin struggled to find upward direction but were keen to lose ground. BTC’s price recovered above $64,000 before the NFP but corrected to trade at $63,300, while ETH strongly held onto support at $3,300.

Cryptocurrencies sustained losses this week amid rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia. Besides, investors did not buy the dovish stance fronted by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, leaving interest rates at 5.25% – 5.5%.

NFP Explained: How Nonfarm Payroll Impacts Crypto Prices

The NFP report measures the change in the number of US jobs created or lost in a month. Released on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM EST, it’s a crucial economic indicator. Economists use this data to gauge the country’s economic health, directly reflecting growth, consumer spending, and total economic activity.

Higher NFP figures—above expectations are viewed as positive for the US dollar but pose immense risk for volatile assets like Bitcoin, stocks, and crypto. A stronger NFP will trigger a US dollar rally which means risk off and eventually a Bitcoin price crash.

Subsequently, Bitcoin will benefit should the Nonfarm Payroll report come out lower than expected, exerting pressure on the US dollar. This may culminate in a weaker currency, bolstered by several interest rate cuts before the end of 2024, which could significantly bump up the progress of risk assets. Consistent interest rate cuts would drive Bitcoin price as the US economy slows down.

The overall general expectation is that July’s Nonfarm Payroll data today will increase by 175k following a 206k jump in June and further clear the course for several interest rate cuts before the end of the year.

Bitcoin Price Bounces Back Targeting $70,000

Bitcoin price is back to trading above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in purple on the four-hour chart after bulls fiercely defended $62,000 support on Thursday. The Money Flow Index (MFI) has recovered to 29, indicating that despite falling to the oversold region, the BTC price could slowly regain momentum, targeting the psychological resistance at $70,000.

Traders will look for a daily close above $65,372—the previous day’s open and, subsequently, the 20-day EMA in blue—to validate the reforming trend reversal. A break above $66,000 support/resistance will reinforce the bullish grip as traders target two key levels at $68,000 and $70,000.

The validation of a rising wedge pattern, which formed as the price hit four higher lows and four higher highs, hints at a 13% drop to $58,000. This target is determined by measuring the distance between the first swing high and the first swing low.

If support at $64,000 fails, more traders will switch to BTC shorts. This will open the door for losses to $62,000—a dangerous maneuver that could, according to this BTC price forecast, drive the coin to $58,000 after the Nonfarm payroll data release.