XRP Price if Ripple Captures 14% of SWIFT Market Share in 5 Years

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse believes XRP price could capture 14% of SWIFT in five years. This comment from the executive at XRP APEX 2025 event in Singapore on June 11 has stirred the XRP community’s speculations on how it could impact the valuation of XRP. Trading at $2.32 as of June 11, 2025, XRP’s market cap stands at $136.82 billion. If Ripple’s XRP captures 14% of SWIFT’s market share, how high could XRP price skyrocket?

How XRP Can Capture SWIFT’s $5 Trillion Daily Market Share?

Based on the SWIFT data, the payments giant processes 44.8 million FIN messages daily, facilitating roughly $5 trillion in transactions a day. Annually, SWIFT processes $1.25 quadrillion. According to Bard Garlinghouse, if Ripple’s XRP could capture 14% of SWIFT’s market share, it would amount to $700 billion volume on a daily basis. It is crucial for US traders to understand if this is possible and its potential impact on XRP price.

Although SWIFT has been the backbone of global cross-border payments since 1973, its legacy infrastructure is criticized for slow settlement times and high costs due to intermediaries. Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, added, 

“Think less about messaging… and more about liquidity. If you’re driving all the liquidity—that’s good for XRP.” 

Using Ripple’s key product – On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) that leverages XRP token for settlements on the XRP Ledger, Ripple aims to finalize transactions in seconds, with a 0.1% error rate compared to SWIFT’s 6%. This efficiency is a key aspect that could help Ripple capture 14% of SWIFT’s volume, equating to $750 billion daily, and drive significant XRP price potential.

XRP Price if it Captures 14% of SWIFT’s Market Share

For Ripple to capture 14% of SWIFT’s market share in five years, multiple factors need to be considered. However, for the sake of argument, let’s ignore everything and also consider the pure impact of Ripple’s XRP helping leverage $700 billion on a daily basis and estimate the impact on its price.

Grok AI Estimates XRP Price Could Range Between $100 to $500

According to Grok AI, capturing 14% of SWIFT’s $5 trillion daily volume would require substantial XRP adoption. With a circulating supply of 58.82 billion XRP and a total supply of 99.99 billion, absorbing $700 billion daily would demand a massive increase in XRP’s market cap.

Grok notes that,

“even 1% of SWIFT’s volume ($50 billion daily) could push XRP’s price to $35.80, assuming sufficient liquidity.”

By scaling this to Ripple CEO’s “14% market share,” it could easily propel “XRP price in the $100–$500 range,” says Grok. The LLM clearly notes that this is “speculative and depends on adoption rates.” 

However, it has not stopped the XRP community from being enthusiastic about the recent comments from the Ripple executive. Posts on X reflect this optimism, with users like @TheCryptoSquire noting, “XRP isn’t sleeping. It’s loading,” projecting a 2.8% annual growth to reach the 14% target provided by Garlinghouse. These are unverified claims and should be treated cautiously.

DeepSeek Predicts XRP Price Could Range Between $63 and $170

DeepSeek AI outlines base, conservative and bull cases to determine the impact on XRP price if it captures 14% of SWIFT’s market share. The LLM calculates the velocity of the token using the current daily volume of $2.67B and $132B market capitalization. Based on velocity, DeepSeek calculates that there is a 262x increase needed in utility volume to handle the $700 billion daily captured market share. Here are the three price projections from DeepSeek:

1. For the base case scenario with a velocity of 40, the AI estimates a 45% probability of the XRP price hitting $63.88 by 2029.
2. On the other hand, there’s a 30% probability of XRP price hitting $25.55 in a bear case scenario with a velocity of 100.
3. The bull case notes XRP price could reach a staggering $170 with a velocity of 15 and gives it a probability of just 25%.

DeepSeek concludes by adding, 

“The math shows ambition, but execution risk is extreme. At current prices, XRP offers asymmetric upside IF Ripple delivers on liquidity infrastructure. Technical traders should watch the $2.50 monthly close level for confirmation of institutional accumulation.”

Key Factors Driving XRP Price Potential

• Liquidity Demand: XRP’s role as a bridge currency eliminates pre-funded accounts, freeing up capital for banks. This could increase demand, boosting XRP price potential.
• Institutional Adoption: Over 100 financial institutions, including SWIFT-connected banks, use Ripple’s solutions. Garlinghouse noted a surge in US bank partnerships post-SEC lawsuit resolution in 2024.
• Regulatory Tailwinds: A crypto-friendly US administration under Trump and anticipated XRP ETF approvals by late 2025 could drive inflows, further supporting price growth.

Risks and Challenges

Clearly, Ripple capturing 14% of SWIFT’s market share is an ambitious goal and is riddled with challenges. SWIFT has ties with more than 11,000 banks across the world, and it dwarfs Ripple’s network, which is nascent, at best. Moreover, Ripple’s regulatory hurdles have been an impediment and slowed adoption over the years. Large-scale institutional adoption of XRP is unlikely due to the inherent volatility that the token carries. Additionally, XRP faces stiff competition from its RLUSD stablecoins and other products such as RippleNet.

Bottom Line

Ripple’s aim to capture 14% of SWIFT’s $5 trillion daily volume by 2030 could unlock massive XRP price potential, with a price target ranging from $35 to $500 in an optimistic scenario. However, the Ripple SWIFT market share strategy hinges on XRP’s liquidity advantages and growing institutional adoption. Without this key development, it is highly unlikely for XRP to skyrocket. Traders should watch catalysts like XRP ETF approvals and US bank partnerships.