Metaplanet Stock Trades At 447% Premium to Bitcoin, Analyst Flash Warning

Metaplanet stock has rallied another 15%, hitting 1,116 JPY levels on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, while extending its monthly gains to more than 224%. This mega rally caught investors’ attention as the stock price is now trading at a 447% premium to Bitcoin, as if each BTC was worth $596,154 i.e. more than five times its actual price. Analysts at 10x Research have flashed warning signs in this valuation gap.

Is Metaplanet Stock A Risk Bet From Here?

Although the Bitcoin price has added $15,000, gaining over 16% over the past month, the Japanese stock has witnessed a mega rally, gaining 224% during the same period. Analysts at 10x research noted that the Metaplanet stock were trading as if Bitcoin were valued at $596,154, nearly 5x of its current pricing. Thus, the stock price is trading at a massive 447% premium to BTC.

Analysts have observed a concerning Net Asset Value (NAV) distortion developing, signaling potential underlying risks. Furthermore, with decreasing volatility and realigning of retail investors’ flows, analysts believe that the stock is now reaching an inflection point. The below image shows a comparison between Metaplanet, Strategy (MSTR), and Bitcoin price on a one-year chart, and the valuation gap that exists.

Adding to the market anxiety further is the uncertainty in the Japanese bond market, currency movements, rising yields, etc. In such uncertainties, Metaplanet has attracted further investor attention and demand, as per 10x Research.

High Bitcoin Taxes in Japan Raise Demand for Proxies

Although Japan is among the most crypto-friendly nations in the market, the taxation of Bitcoin as “miscellaneous income” subjects gains to rates as high as 55%. This is significantly higher than the 20% tax applied to standard capital gains. As a result, investors have been looking for Bitcoin proxy bets like Metaplanet instead of directly engaging with BTC.

Gains from Metaplanet shares are taxed at the more favorable 20% capital gains rate. Moreover, for investors using Japan’s NISA (Nippon Individual Savings Account), both capital gains and dividends from Metaplanet stock are entirely tax-exempt. This efficient tax treatment makes Metaplanet an attractive option for Japanese investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin price rallies to fresh all-time highs, breaking past the key BTC resistance of $110K, the rally in Metaplanet might continue further.