FOMC Meeting Next Week: Will the Fed Cut, Raise, or Hold Interest Rates?

Market Snapshot

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, interest-rate futures are not pricing a debate about whether the Fed tightens. They are pricing a debate about size. A quarter-point increase is live and tradable. A half-point increase is not.

The current Fed rate hike odds put a 50 basis-point move at effectively zero, and that single number tells you more about how markets are positioned into July 29 than any Fed speech has this month.

July 2026 FOMC Meeting odds snapshot

The figures below reflect 30-day Fed Funds futures pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool, with Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor as a mirror. Probabilities move continuously; treat this as a snapshot, not a fixed reading.

Current policy setting: the federal funds target range stands at 3.50% to 3.75%, with the effective fed funds rate printing at 3.63%.

The decision statement lands at 2:00 p.m. ET on July 29, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. For the full calendar context, see CoinGape’s 2026 FOMC schedule breakdown.

What the July odds actually price

A hold near 64% is not a statement that the Fed is comfortable. It is a statement that the committee is unlikely to act this month.

Longer-dated contracts for September and beyond continue to carry a higher cumulative probability of tightening, which means the market’s central expectation is delay rather than dismissal.

That distinction matters for anyone reading the headline number. Fed funds futures price the level of the rate at each meeting date, so a September contract already embeds whatever is priced for July.

The odds are cumulative, not a series of independent coin flips, and adding them together produces a number that means nothing.

The gap between the roughly 36% odds on a 25 BPS move and the near-zero odds on 50 BPS is the real signal. Traders are willing to underwrite a modest, telegraphed adjustment. They are not willing to underwrite a shock.

Why a 50 BPS move sits at effectively zero

Three structural reasons keep the aggressive tail flat. No new projections. The July meeting does not carry a Summary of Economic Projections or an updated dot plot.

Committees rarely deliver an outsized move in a meeting without the projection apparatus to frame it. Without an SEP, a 50 BPS hike would arrive with no numerical context beyond the statement itself.

The June baseline was one hike, not two. The June dot plot pointed to a median expectation of a single quarter-point increase across all of 2026. A half-point move in July would front-load and then exceed the committee’s own median path in a single step.

The data does not force it. Growth is solid, unemployment is low, and inflation, while still above the 2% goal, has shown signs of easing after the mid-year energy spike.

That combination supports optionality, not urgency. Absent a genuine shock, the committee has no reason to spend credibility on a surprise.

The June meeting set the baseline under Kevin Warsh

Warsh took office in May 2026 as successor to Jerome Powell, and his first meeting as chair on June 16-17 produced a unanimous vote to hold at 3.50% to 3.75%.

As CoinGape reported at the time, the decision itself was expected. The framing was not. The committee dropped its easing-leaning forward guidance and raised its median year-end rate projection, a combination markets read as hawkish.

The dot plot split the committee nine to nine between participants expecting rates to stay flat or fall and participants expecting at least one increase before year-end, with the median dot landing on a quarter-point hike.

Warsh himself submitted no dot at all, consistent with his stated preference for reducing the Fed’s reliance on projections.

The June minutes, released on July 8, confirmed the split. Speaking at the ECB Forum in Sintra on July 1, Warsh said prices remain “too high” and declined to indicate whether a July increase was under consideration.

Institutional desks had already flagged the risk: ahead of the June decision, Citadel warned of a material rate-hike scenario, and expectations heading into that meeting were mapped out in CoinGape’s pre-decision preview.

The practical result for July is a chair who has removed guidance as a tool. Less signalling means the market has fewer anchors, which is precisely why futures pricing has become the reference point traders check first.

What moved the odds through July

The July path has not been flat. On July 13, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a 25 BPS hike jumping to roughly 46.5% from 34% a day earlier, with Kalshi moving to 36% from under 20%.

The trigger was geopolitical rather than domestic: a reinstated blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz, paired with a 20% toll on cargo through the passage, pushed oil up more than 5% and past $75 per barrel.

Energy is the transmission channel that has driven this entire cycle.

The inflation acceleration that began in March traced back to oil and gas, and every subsequent repricing in rate expectations has followed the same input.

Softer inflation data in mid-July pulled the hike probability back down toward the mid-30s, where it now sits.

Crypto markets have tracked these swings closely. The pre-June surge in hike odds produced a visible risk-off reaction across majors, and the same sensitivity has held into July.

What this means for crypto and risk assets

The near-zero odds on aggressive tightening are being read as broadly supportive of short-term liquidity conditions.

A hold, or even a telegraphed 25 BPS move, is far less disruptive to risk assets than a surprise half-point step that forces an abrupt repricing across the curve.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and crypto-linked equities have shown clear sensitivity to shifting rate expectations through June and July.

Positioning ahead of the decision is covered in CoinGape’s analysis of crypto-linked stocks heading into the July meeting, and the broader market framing is set out in the 2026 FOMC impact preview.

The practical takeaway is that the July meeting is more likely to be a communication event than a policy event.

With no projections to digest, the statement language and the press conference will carry the repricing weight, and the effect will land mostly on September and October contracts rather than on the July outcome itself.

Key dates to watch

A fuller breakdown of the July gathering, including how to follow it live, is available in CoinGape’s July 2026 FOMC guide.