FOMC Meeting Preview 2026: Rate Expectations, SpaceX and Bitcoin Impact

The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is finally here, and the central banking system of the United States is expected to deliver its rate decision today, June 17. The outcome of the event could significantly impact finance markets including Bitcoin and recently listed SpaceX. 

The CME Fedwatch tool is pricing a probability of no change at around 97%, with the funds rate expected to remain steady in the  current 3.50%-3.75% target range. The attention will turn to the updated dot plot, economic projections, and the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, as the crypto market awaits.

What matters most is the press conference that follows at 2.30PM ET, since it will be the first time Warsh makes his first major policy appearance.

Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget noted that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting could be one of the most important macro events of the week. She highlighted that markets are now pricing every word, dot plot shift, and policy signal as inflation remains sticky and liquidity expectations stay uncertain. 

She said,

The old idea that crypto only trades on crypto-native narratives is outdated. Today, BTC, US equities, gold, FX and commodities are all reacting to the same macro question: Where is liquidity going next?

FOMC Meeting: Warsh’s Debut and the Dot Plot That Matters More

In May 2022, Kevin Warsh took office replacing Jerome Powell, at a time when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate signals. Therefore, today’s meeting also marks a significant milestone for the Fed, under its new leadership.

The new chair has built a reputation of leaning towards a tighter policy, unlike some policymakers who have in the past favored rate cuts. More often, he has expressed concerns regarding prolonged balance-sheet expansion, and historically criticised easing of policy before inflation risks are fully contained.

As Warsh takes over leadership, all investors’ eyes are on his Fed rate decision and the updated dot plot, which provides the first detailed look at the interest rate projections of the policymakers.

In March, projections suggested a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026, pointing to at most one additional rate cut this year.  If at the FOMC meeting Warsh revises his first dot plot upwards, it will demonstrate that policymakers expect rates to stay higher for longer.

SpaceX’s Massive IPO Adds Another Layer

SpaceX (SPCX) remains one of the biggest stories on Wall Street, having raised around $75 billion at $135 per share. Since it was listed on June 12, the stock skyrocketed 19% on the first day, climbing to briefly overtake Amazon’s market cap on Tuesday.

Vanda Research reported that retailers invested over $117 million into the stock on the day one of trading alone.

Some analysts have warned of capital rotating away from higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin, should interest surge. Although SpaceX reportedly holds around 18,700 Bitcoins, the increasing excitement for high-growth technology stocks may attract investors capital, that could be invested into crypto.

On X, traders are actively discussing the crossover effects. Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money on CNBC noted of funds moving from BTC/gold into SpaceX.

Bitcoin and gold–bad money, being liquidated for SpaceX. Apple and Nvidia –good money–being liquidated

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) June 10, 2026

Final Thoughts: What It Means for Bitcoin

Bitcoin price is currently at around  $65,000 after recovering from recent lows near $59k-$60k. However, BTC still remains sensitive to Fed signals.

Analysts are focused on two potential outcomes at the FOMC Meeting. If Chair Kevin Warsh strikes a patient tone and retains a modest easing bias in the Fed’s statement, Bitcoin could push toward the $68,000 level in the days ahead.

However, if the updated dot plot signals growing support for a September rate hike, many traders expect BTC to retest the $64,000 support zone that helped stabilize prices for much of last week.