Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?

• Polymarket prices ‘No’ shares at 54% while ‘Yes’ trades at 47%. 
• This ladder is the most traded at $422k over its lifetime, with $97,000 trading in the past 24 hours. 
• Open interest is steady at $48,693, offering deep enough liquidity for retail traders. 
• The market will resolve on September 1, 2026. 

Overview

As of Monday, August 10, WTI Crude Oil futures trade at $79, signifying a 1.43% drop from last week, following the recent Washington and Tehran talks. Traders worldwide expected the futures to hit the mid-$80s mark today, but recent events have slowed the progress. This is clearly shown via Polymarket’s contract, which saw the odds of WTI crossing $85 in August almost halve from near 70 cents to 47 cents, as of writing. 

Over the past few days, the biggest factor affecting oil prices, which is the Strait of Hormuz opening or closure, is yet to have a resolution, despite positive talks between the US and Iran.

On August 4, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, hinting the pathway could be reopened as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday. On the other hand, OPEC+ confirmed that it is planning to release another 188,000 barrels per day for September, easing up the rise in WTI Crude oil. 

Following the news, Polymarket traders rushed to sell their $85 hit contracts, as the contract fell from highs of 77 cents to a low of 33 cents on August 6. Currently, the $85 leg trades at 47 cents against 54 on the No side, and has drawn roughly $420,000 in cumulative volume since opening in July.

A Shrinking Coin-Toss Probability

Despite the recent positive talks, the US and Iran still remain locked in the question of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The pathway has been effectively locked for the past 162 days, with less than 15 vessels passing daily through it since the August 4 talks, against roughly 130 transits a day before the conflict.

According to Polymarket, the market remains pessimistic on the Strait of Hormuz opening this month, pricing the normalization of traffic by August 31 at only 4%. The demand-supply economics could well help the $85 hit contract skyrocket if the waterway remains shut after Wednesday. 

Despite the reported ‘likely” opening of the Strait last week, several statements over the weekend could have given traders a different view. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the country was in talks with Oman to close a deal on transit routes but ruled out direct talks with Washington. Araghchi further confirmed that the waterway will remain closed until its demands of lifted sanctions, an end to the naval blockade and payment of war reparations were met. 

With last week already flushing out the speculative longs and repricing the possible opening, a clear verdict on the Strait remaining closed could see WTI Crude Oil Futures reprice sharply upwards, similar to the Polymarket contract. 

OPEC Targets Fresh Supply And Global Output Increase

With OPEC already announcing a fresh output increase in September, the market could reprice downwards in expectation of the supply increase. Notwithstanding, the US, Brazil and Guyana announced increases in output, which could signal more supply output later in the month. 

The IEA has also released a report expecting the global demand for oil to contract in the tail end of the year by roughly 1 million barrels a day, which could see an oversupply being met by reducing demand. 

Finally, the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance, holding rates at 3.50%–3.75% all year, could see a fall in demand from countries globally, as they expect the Fed to hold or spike rates rather than cut during the September meeting. 

This makes a case for WTI Crude Oil hitting $85 in August less likely, hence the contract trading at 56% for ‘No’ shares.