Will Clarity Act (H.R.3633) be Signed Into Law in 2026?

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 85% while Yes trades at 15%.
• This market has recorded $13.9M in trading volume, with $1.9M traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $1.1M, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on January 1, 2027

Overview

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has offered more hope to crypto and prediction market believers, covering more procedural ground than any crypto market structure bill yet. Despite the ground covered, prediction markets remain skeptical of the Act turning into law this year. Polymarket prices the probability at 19%, as of writing. 

On Polymarket, the contract has traded over $6 million in its lifetime cumulatively, while traders still hold nearly $150,000 in open interest. One key note is that the contract will resolve to “Yes” only if the bill passes both chambers and is signed into law by President Trump before the end of the year. 

The Odds Have Round-Tripped Twice in Ten Days

In early May, the odds of the bill being passed steadily fell to 76%, sliding through spring as the Senate calendar tightened and traders became more skeptical. Following Trump’s $1.4 billion crypto income disclosure, the odds further fell to 39%, as Democrats raised more ethical objections on the H.R.3633 bill. As more Democrats piled on the bill and questions surrounding it grew, the odds of the bill being passed fell to 24% by July 13. 

However, the biggest destruction of the odds came earlier this month when Senate Majority Leader John Thune announced that the Senate will wait until after the August recess for a floor vote on the CLARITY Act. With Thune declining to file cloture on August 5, the odds fell to their lowest point on Polymarket since launch, briefly printing 13% odds. 

Three days later, the Senate filed a cloture motion, seeing the bill finally tabled to the legislature during an overnight session, and the odds rose 10 points to 23%. The filing was to simply preserve a mid-September reading in the Senate following the break. 

Bitcoin’s Price Remains Unmoved

Despite the renewed optimism on the bill, Bitcoin has barely moved from the mid-$60,000 price, and total crypto market capitalization still hovers above the $2 trillion mark ($2.19 trillion). BTC sits inside a range with resistance near $67,000 and support around $61,900.

Commenting on developments regarding the CLARITY Act, Grayscale said in a statement that the delay in the Act would not immediately affect growth or demand in the crypto ecosystem. 

“The digital asset industry has operated for roughly 17 years without CLARITY, and it will keep doing so,” Grayscale said in a statement. Adding to the delays the Act has faced, the digital asset firm further noted that regulatory work by other state and federal agencies has already laid a strong foundation for the industry to continue developing. 

The key date will be the mid-September cloture vote. If the vote passes but the odds remain unchanged, it shows the market is believing that the Act will survive, just not this year.