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Top Bloomberg ETF analysts are growing more confident about the potential of having a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by January 2024.
Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Now at 90%
According to an X post by James Seyffart, as complemented by Eric Balchunas’, there is a 90% chance of having the United States SEC approve the numerous spot Bitcoin ETF applications on its desk by January 10. There is also a possibility that the approval would come in earlier.
Based on his recent permutations, Seyffart sees the likelihood of having a huge influx of approvals from the SEC at the same time.
He shared a screenshot of a report titled “Bitcoin ETFs’ Approval Opportunity” which he co-authored with Balchunas, where they both teased the opening of a brief approval window for the product.
Per the screenshot, the window is scheduled to open on November 9, during which the SEC might approve all 12 Bitcoin ETF applications it is currently reviewing. These include Grayscale’s GBTC which was recently cleared for consideration by a federal court. It is worth noting that this brief window will likely stay open for a minimum of eight days.
Based on the calendar, the window is billed to close by November 17.
SEC Might be Playing the Long Game
Furthermore, Seyffart recalled the SEC’s move to postpone its decision on the Bitcoin ETF applications made by BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie in September. This was only a few days after ARK Invest and 21Shares received similar news about their jointly-owned Bitcoin ETF application.
“If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch — as we believe — this is the first available window since Grayscale’s court victory was affirmed,” the Bloomberg ETF analyst presumed.
Meanwhile, Balchunas had earlier shared a sequence of events to look out for in the potential timeline for the launch of a Bitcoin ETF. Beyond the currently opened approval window, he’s optimistic the 19b-4 filings from BTC ETF applicants will be approved in the not-so-distant future.
These 19b-4 filings, which are currently being reviewed by the SEC, are very important to the establishment of Bitcoin ETFs. Their approval will also trigger the SEC toward granting a positive pass on other essential key documents like the S-1 filings amongst others.
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