Strategy’s S&P 500 Bid Still Alive Despite MSTR Plunge Below Bitcoin mNAV

Strategy’s position as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin is back under the spotlight following the latest crypto market correction. Despite renewed skepticism about the durability of its treasury-driven model, the company continues to face scrutiny. The analysis indicates that it remains on course for potential inclusion in the S&P 500 index.

Matrixport Says Possibility Of Strategy S&P Inclusion Still Exists

In a report shared on X, the research firm Matrixport stated that the possibility of Michael Saylor’s company being included in the S&P 500 index by December remains. This comes despite the company’s recent woes with the MSTR stock crashing alongside Bitcoin.

As CoinGape reported, following the Strategy’s recent stock crash, the mNAV is now below 1, with the stock’s market cap below the total value of its Bitcoin holdings. Veteran trader Peter Brandt had also warned that BTC could drop below $50,000, which would put the company’s BTC portfolio underwater.

However, despite all this, the possibility of Strategy joining the S&P 500 by December remains. It is worth mentioning that the company had missed out on a listing in September, losing a potential spot to crypto exchange Robinhood, AppLovin, and Emcor.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart had also previously confirmed that the company was likely to be eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 by December. This followed revelations that the company had recorded positive earnings for the second quarter in a row due to its Bitcoin holdings. However, Seyffart opined that there is less than a 50% chance that Strategy will gain S&P 500 inclusion.

Looks like Strategy/ $MSTR will be eligible for S&P 500 index inclusion in December 👀 https://t.co/YMyZGLsrLS

— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) September 30, 2025

Bitcoin Liquidation Unlikely A Near-Term Risk

Despite concerns that Strategy may have to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings to service its debts if BTC cash persists, Matrixport said it doesn’t view this as a near-term risk. There were already rumors that the company was selling its BTC, which Saylor denied; instead, the company made a $836 million BTC purchase last week.

Matrixport stated that the real pressure is on investors who bought the MSTR stock at an inflated net asset value and are now feeling the impact of NAV compression. The company had notably raised most of its capital when the stock was trading near the all-time high (ATH) of $474 and its NAV was at its peak.

However, the NAV has since compressed with MSTR falling from a 2025 high of around $455 to below $200 at the moment. The stock has now lost its year-to-date (YTD) gains and is down over 37% this year.

Despite the current market conditions, Saylor described Strategy’s approach as “indestructible,” asserting that they can take an 80% to 90% decline and continue operating without disruption. The company is designed to survive through extreme drawdowns without interrupting operations, he added.