Why Is Bitcoin Price Falling Again?

Bitcoin price remains under selling pressure despite multiple tailwinds, including continuous buying by treasury firms, the US government shutdown finally ending, and spot ETF inflows. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are likely to remain range-bound lower without a macro catalyst, experts believe.

Trading volumes support wipes out as sentiment changed after BTC dropped below $100K, restoring the cycle peak narratives.   

Why Bitcoin Price Set to Fall Despite Long-Term Catalysts?

Today, US President Donald Trump signed a bill to end the US government shutdown after 43 days. However, Bitcoin price action remains tepid, trading near $103,000. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded outflow again, with only three inflows in the last 10 days. Bitcoin ETFs sold BTC worth $278.1 million on Wednesday.

BlackRock’s IBIT recorded $36.9 million in outflows. Meanwhile, Fidelity’s FBTC, Ark 21Shares’ ARKB, and GBTC saw $132.9 million, $85.2 million, and $23.1 million in outflows, respectively.

As CoinGape reported, the latest profit booking occurred after the ADP jobs data revealed further weakening US labor market. The private employers in the United States cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in October.

Long-term holders (LTH) and whales were certain that Bitcoin price would top in September-October. As per the playbook, Bitcoin peaks 12-18 months after a halving, and the pattern held.

Analyst Scott Melker, aka The Wolf of All Streets, revealed that historical data suggest bull market peaks occur around 1,060-1,070 days. Notably, BTC is now roughly 1,080 days removed from its last major cycle low.

Bitcoin Price Outlook by Experts

10x Research says Bitcoin price is plunging back into levels few expected to see this year. Buyers who once supported every dip have suddenly vanished.

“A series of quiet but critical shifts in flows, positioning, and long-term holder behavior is now reshaping the entire market structure,” 10x Research head Markus Thielen said on November 13.

Crypto stocks have lost shine and erased years of speculative premium in just weeks. Some traders are still buying the dip on BTC purchases by Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) and digital asset treasury companies.

Matrixport noted that crypto trading volumes remain soft amid the recent crypto market surge. Over the last 12 months, daily volumes declined by 50% from $352 billion to $178 billion.

The research firm claims the crypto market has entered a mini-bear phase, as per on-chain indicators. Several potential catalysts exist now, but are incapable of driving Bitcoin price upwards amid low liquidity.

QCP Capital expects a choppy Bitcoin price and crypto market activity through Q4 after ADP and NFIB data hint at a softening labor market, with tariff tensions and credit volatility still in play. However, the firm claims that “potential Fed cuts and solid earnings could keep BTC and risk assets supported into 2026.”

BTC Chart Shows Technical Weakness

GreeksLive reported a rise in BTC open interest and trading volume in the options market. However, data signals heightened market uncertainty about near-term price movements.

Analysts have noted falling wedge, head-and-shoulder, or bear flag patterns. Today, crypto analyst Ali Martinez predicted a potential breakdown to $83,000 based on a head-and-shoulders pattern formation. He claims a rebound in Bitcoin price to $112,000 might fully form the right shoulder. Then it will start moving downwards to the $100,000 neckline.

At the time of writing, BTC-USD is trading near $103,00, rebounding more than 1% over the last 24 hours but down more than 20% from its ATH. The 24-hour low and high are $100,836 and $105,297, respectively.

Coinglass data confirms selling in the derivatives market. The total BTC futures open interest has dropped 2% in the last 24 hours. The 1-hour and 4-hour data show selloffs in BTC persist.