Polymarket Traders Slash Trump Tariff Odds by 29% After Justices Question Legality, Bitcoin Jumps

Polymarket traders sharply cut the odds of President Donald Trump winning his Supreme Court tariff case after several justices cast doubt on the legality of his sweeping trade measures. The market dropped by 29% during Wednesday’s hearing.

Supreme Court Challenges Trump’s Tariff Authority

Both conservative and liberal members of the Court challenged the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose broad duties. The sudden shift in sentiment pushed traders toward safer positions and lifted Bitcoin as uncertainty grew across traditional markets.

Per a CNBC report, the hearing highlighted widespread skepticism from the bench. Justices questioned whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act allowed the president to impose tariffs that functioned like taxes.

They pressed the administration on why a law never used for tariffs was being used to justify charges that affected nearly all major trading partners. Multiple justices stressed that the Constitution assigns taxing authority to Congress alone.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor underscored that tariffs collect revenue from U.S. importers and consumers, not foreign manufacturers. According to her, calling them regulation tools did not change their effect.

Justices Question Executive Power on Tariffs

The issue of uncontrolled executive power was the concern expressed by Justice Neil Gorsuch. Gorsuch stated that there should a cause for worry if a president could declare an emergency to do whatever he wants without Congressional restrictions, such as imposing tariffs.

After increasing tariffs on China imports by 100% last month, Trump has announced a cut in tariffs. This followed a one-year trade agreement between the two nations.

Chief Justice John Roberts and other conservative justices echoed the concern, signaling bipartisan hesitation. Lower courts have already ruled that Trump overstepped executive authority. The Supreme Court hearing added new pressure by exposing weaknesses in the administration’s argument.

Government lawyers argued that the tariffs targeted trade imbalances and global fentanyl flows. But the plaintiffs countered that the policy bypassed the constitutional framework that prevents presidents from taxing unilaterally.

The stakes remain enormous. If the Court strikes down the Trump tariffs, the U.S. Treasury may be required to return vast sums collected since the policy began.

Officials previously warned that refunds could exceed $750 billion. Companies involved in the case say the tariffs raised import costs that were ultimately passed to American consumers and worsened supply chain pressures.

Bitcoin Rallies Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Market reaction intensified as traders absorbed the exchanges between the justices and the administration. Bitcoin price rallied as the tariff odds crashed. The cryptocurrency climbed above $103,000 after rebounding from early-morning lows near $99,500, according to TradingView.

The chart showed a strong intraday recovery that accelerated as doubts over the tariff case spread. This BTC price gains contrasts its significant drop when Trump announced a 100% tariff on China imports.

Also, Polymarket odds fell rapidly, reflecting a collapse in confidence that the tariff policy would survive. The decline came at the same moment risk assets began to respond to the growing uncertainty.